Der er sket et boom i private aktionærers handel i USA under pandemien, især i første halvår, hvor aktiemarkederne boomede. Regeringens stimulipakker til brugerne har skabt likvide midler, men også en stærk vækst i nye handelsplatforme samt brugen af smartphones har stimuleret handelen. Desuden har der været et boom i de såkaldte meme-stocks, nogle rent spekulative aktier som Game Stop. Handelen er faldt lidt i den seneste tid, hvor markedet synes at have toppet. De private aktionærers handel er faldet fra 25 pct. af handelen til 20 pct. af handelen. Før pandemien var det 15 pct., og for 10 år siden var det 10 pct. De institutionelle investorerer har derimod trukket følerne til sig under pandemien og har reduceret deres andel af handelen dramatisk til ca. 30 pct. “Andre” aktionærer står for 50 pct. De amerikanske husholdninger – både de rigeste og de fattigste – ejer i dag 40 pct. af det amerikanske aktiemarked. På det globale aktiemarked var der i år en rekordstor tilstrømning af kapital fra private aktionærer – på 1000 milliarder dollar. Det er mere end tilstrømningen fra de private investorer i de seneste 20 år, viser en analyse fra Bank of America. Spørgsmålet er nu, om de private aktionærer brænder fingrene, som millioner af boligejere gjorde det under finanskrisen i 2008 – hvis markedet vender.
The Rise of Retail Traders
Amid the confluence of economic shutdowns, government stimulus aimed directly at
households, growth of online trading platforms, and widespread reduction in brokerage
commission fees, retail investors have become increasingly relevant market participants.
U.S. households now own just under 40% of the U.S. Equity market, according to Fed data,
and were among the biggest buyers in the recent pandemic recovery.
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Months removed from the onset of the pandemic, retail trading volumes remain
elevated—they accounted for about 20% of U.S. Equity market volume in Q2, down from
24% in Q1, but in line with 2020 levels (Exhibit 2).
Increased retail activity could be contributing to record inflows into Equities this year so
far—the annualized inflow of $1 trillion to global stocks in 2021 is greater than the
cumulative inflow of the prior 20 years, according to BofA Global Research.
Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 Value index is up 20% year to date. Some of the biggest
contributors to the index this year have been coined as “meme stocks,” which gained
traction amid the retail trading frenzy.
It is still unclear how a reduction in stimulus or a significant pullback in equity markets
could influence retail trading volume. But in our view, the increased participation of retail
investors should continue to add to the new Equity culture that is building out in the U.S.,
contributing to the current secular bull market.
