Merrill punkterer de mange dystre rapporter i medierne om forsyningsvanskeligheder og begyndende økonomisk nedtur i Kina og Europa. De amerikanske multinationale selsskaber klarer sig langt bedre end forventet, især når det drejer sig om deres indjening fra udlandet. I andet kvartal satte indtjeningem fra aktiviteterne i udlandet rekord med 123 milliarder dollar. Det ligger langt over niveauet siden finanskrisen. De dystre mediemeldinger skygger også for, at amerikanske virksomheder tjener godt i Kina. En undersøelse viser, at 82,2 pct. af de amerikanske virksomheder venter en højere indtjening i år fra Kina end sidste år. Men Europa er den største udenlandske indtjeningskilde. Siden 2000 er 61 pct. af virksomhedernes udenlandske indtjening kommet fra Europa – mod 21 pct. fra Kina og det øvrige Asien.
It’s Not All Gloom and Doom on the U.S. Global Earnings Front
Supply chain bottlenecks, China’s economic slowdown, a strengthening greenback—there
are numerous headwinds to the earnings of U.S. multinationals, all of which were
highlighted at length in the popular media over the past few weeks. The negative
drumbeat, not surprisingly, has dampened Q3 earning expectations for many U.S. Largecap
companies, although we are more sanguine.
Missing from the consensus is the simple fact that U.S. foreign affiliate income (a proxy
for U.S. global earnings) is currently clipping along at a record pace. According to recently
released figures from the BEA, U.S. foreign affiliate income totaled a record $123 billion in
Q2—a figure not only well above the depressed numbers of a year ago but also a prepandemic
high (Exhibit 5). For the first half of 2021, affiliate income was nearly 50%
higher than the comparable period a year ago, reflecting a much faster-than-expected
snapback in U.S. global earnings.
The earnings comeback has been clouded by all the negative news emanating from China
and mounting concerns that the world’s second-largest economy is on the cusp of a major
slowdown. We are not as pessimistic about China’s macro prospects; what’s more, at the
micro level, it’s worth noting that according to the latest “China Business Report” from the
American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, U.S. firms remain bullish on China, with
82.2% of U.S. companies surveyed expecting higher revenues in 2021 than in 2020.
Supporting this optimism, U.S. foreign affiliate income from China in the first half of 2021
was up 73% from the prior year.
China aside, it’s Europe that really matters to U.S. global earnings, with the region
accounting for over 60% of total U.S. affiliate income over this century (Exhibit 6).
Europe’s economic rebound-cum-earnings boost to U.S. multinationals has been
underreported and underappreciated on Wall Street. We believe upside U.S. earning
surprises in Q3 will reflect, in part, the better-than-expected global backdrop for U.S.
multinationals, with Europe providing the main earnings ballast.
