Deutsche Bank hæfter sig ved, at to tredjedele af de tyske virksomheder har flaskehalsproblemer, og desuden tonser priserne opad fra metalvarer til energi. Flaskehalsene og prisstigningerne rammer især Tyskland hårdt, fordi landet er en åben økonomi. Deutsche Bank venter, at flaskehalsene vil vare ved ind i 2022, men efterhånden aftage. Men trods de højere priser, er ordreindgangen meget høj – 22 pct. højere end produktionsniveauet. Det er det højeste niveau siden genforeningen. Det betyder, at kunderne er parate til at betale væsentligt mere for deres produkter, og derfor presses inflationen i vejret.
Supply chain disruptions
Still a risk to the economy and inflation in 2022
Never since reunification have industrial companies in Germany complained as much about material bottlenecks as they do at present. According to the ifo Institute, at the beginning of the 3rd quarter almost 64% of companies reported that bottlenecks in the supply of primary products were hampering their own production. The average figure for the years 1991 to 2020 was 5.4%.
In addition to physical shortages of intermediate products, rising prices are also currently problematic for companies. On the one hand, this is due to higher prices for raw materials. On the other, suppliers are increasingly drawing on their stocks of finished goods to meet customer demand. Due to the current bottlenecks, significant price increases for finished products can be enforced.
This is reflected in producer prices. In August 2021, they were around 12% higher than a year earlier – the biggest increase since December 1974. Metals were a good 35% higher than a year earlier, processed wood almost 100% higher and iron and steel scrap 105% higher. Producer prices for crude oil and natural gas exceeded the 2020 level by 142%.
The latest development is not a German phenomenon. In many countries around the world, the current economic recovery is being dampened by supply bottlenecks and higher prices. As an open economy, Germany is feeling the impact via import prices. In August 2021, these were more than 16% higher than the corresponding year-earlier level. This was the highest increase since September 1981.
As a result, the inflation rate in Germany has been picking up for some time. In September 2021, it was 4.1%. For 2021 as a whole, we expect inflation to be around 3%, compared with +0.4% in 2020. A number of structural factors suggest that we will have to prepare for higher inflation rates in the coming years.
Supply bottlenecks and rising prices for intermediate goods are hampering the economic recovery in the manufacturing sector. Here, new orders in August 2021 exceeded the production level by close to 22%. This is the second largest difference between production and orders since reunification (with July 2021 ranking first place). The demand side is therefore not a limiting factor for a stronger industrial recovery. We have revised our production forecast for the manufacturing sector downward to +6% in 2021 (2020: -9.6%).
Overall, we expect supply chain disruptions to keep us busy into 2022, although the low point in the supply crisis may be behind us. Production capacities will be difficult to expand in the short term. Some companies will hold back on expansion investments if they expect the excess demand to be temporary. For individual products (e.g. semiconductors), production capacities are likely to be ramped up, but at the same time demand is rising structurally.
