Ikke-uafhængig analyse: Penneo – There is a crack in everything

ABG har mod betaling udarbejdet denne analyse af Penneo: 

• Downgrades ’21 ARR guidance by 4.3% at the mid-point…
• …due to public COVID measures, closing rates & staff churn
• Peers re-rating, lower estimates, fair value DKK 24-47 (30-60)

Breaking its perfect streak since the IPO
Penneo adjusted its ARR guidance for 2021, from DKK 56m-60m to DKK 54m-57m. The EBITDA guidance was maintained at a negative DKK 15m-20m. The downgrade follows four upgrades since listing in June 2020, and is due to a lower inflow of new customers across industries and markets.

Bad things come in threes
First, the national Danish deadline for filing annual reports was extended in 2020 by three months due to the pandemic. The usual deadline is five months post-balance sheet date (typically 31 Dec). With a three-month extension, however, the high-season for annual report signatures was pushed into Q3 – creating a tough comp this year. Second, Penneo has initiated a process to automate the customer journey, thereby improving the lead-to-cash cycle and scalability. However, this had a short-term impact on closing rates that the company says has been mitigated. Last, Penneo is not resistant to fierce competition for IT professionals. We understand this relates to the departure of 2-3 high performing sales people. Contrary to the other factors impacting guidance, this is likely to persist in the short and medium term, we believe.

Generalt om Commissioned Research: Bemærk, at man bør se bort fra eventuelle kursestimater i såkaldt commissioned research, og den underliggende analyse skal også tolkes med forsigtighed, da negative aspekter ikke nødvendigvis fremhæves.