Fra BNP Paribas
US: The employment report was decidedly positive and put our odds of a December hike at 85%.
Fastest wages since 2009! Who says the Philips curve is dead?
FOMC inflation goal seems asymmetric Fed guidance that the pace of hikes is likely to be “gradual” is actually quite vague. What does it mean for the meeting after liftoff?
Michigan inflation expectations, Survey of Professional Forecasters’ expectations, and breakevens in the US all on a worrying slippery slope. Does the Fed care?
Trump polling strongly for a 4th consecutive month. Carson is now leading, Rubio is spiking, and Bush is losing more ground on the Republican ticket.
Clinton has a comfortable 24.4-point margin in the Democratic polls.
ISM manufacturing is close to the 50 contraction threshold, but its non-manufacturing sibling is nudging 60— parallels with the post-Asian crisis experience?
US ISM manufacturing flattening out—inventory correction not getting worse? US consumer confidence and US consumer spending are soft going into Q4.
