Signalerne fra verdens centralbanker er næsten enslydende: De lægger mere vægt på at bekæmpe inflationen end på at sikre en høj vækst, og det gælder også i Europa, hvor væksten kan blive hårdere ramt end i USA og Asien som følge af krigen i Ukraine. ECB sagde i går, at krigen er skelsættende for Europa. Et medlem af ECB-rådet sagde uden for citat, at inflationen er røget over ECBs målsætning, og at ECB hidtil ikke har magtet at leve op til sit mandat om en 2 procents inflation. ECB sætter dog ikke renten i vejret, men vil i første omgang reducere sine obligationsopkøb og dermed begynde at stramme op på pengepolitikken. Derfor lægges vægten nu på at bekæmpe inflationen. Den amerikanske centralbank ventes i næste uge at sætte renten i vejret. Rentestigningerne for hele året ventes at blive større end forventet for bare en uge siden.
Global central banks stay inflation-focused, see growth continuing despite war
The Russian attack on Ukraine may slow global growth and raise new economic risks, but top central banks are keeping their focus trained on an inflation fight that looks set to intensify.
While Europe may be the most vulnerable to a broader economic shock from the war, the European Central Bank made clear on Thursday the region could not turn their backs on soaring inflation in the euro zone.
Calling the war a “watershed moment” that could curb growth but boost inflation, the ECB decided to stop pumping money into markets this summer – clearing the way for possible interest rate increases later this year.
“You can slice inflation any way you want and look at any core measure, it’s above target and rising. We have a 2% mandate and we’re failing it,” said one ECB policymaker, who asked not to be named.
A similar narrative was emerging in other Western countries, including the United States, as officials weigh the potential damage on their economies from the war against the persistent rise in inflation.
Growth is expected to remain above trend in major economies, allowing them to focus on inflation running far faster than their common 2% percent benchmark.
The Bank of Canada raised interest rates earlier this month.
The Bank of England and the Federal Reserve are expected to do so next week. Each is expected to follow with more increases in coming months.
Even fiscal policy officials – more sensitive to the politics of economic developments and often cheerleaders of looser central bank policies – are keenly aware of the corrosive power of run-away price increases.
Inflation “is of tremendous concern,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Thursday. “It hits Americans hard. It makes them worry about basic pocketbook issues.”
With U.S. consumer inflation hitting a 40-year high, investors now expect the Fed to raise the target federal funds rate to a level between 1.75% and 2% by year’s end, a quarter point higher than they expected as of last week.
The outlier among major central banks is the Bank of Japan, which is expected to maintain ultra-loose monetary policy to support a still fragile recovery even as surging energy costs push up inflation toward its 2% target.
The monetary policy path is less clear in Asia, where many economies have lagged Western counterparts in scrapping harsh pandemic restrictions.
For some central banks in the region, such as New Zealand, South Korea and Singapore, deep worries about prices and imported inflation have already set off policy tightening.
