Danske Bank har mod betaling udarbejdet denne analyse af Carlsberg A/S:
Key arguments for the trade
- Carlsberg bonds have widened significantly relative to peers following the turmoil ensuing from the Russia/Ukraine conflict. While part of this is warranted, we believe the move is overdone, with parts of the curve pricing in between 75-95% probability of a downgrade to ‘Baa3’ (‘BBB-‘). We see a probability that is much closer to 0%.
- Assuming a worst case scenario of a full removal of EBITDA from both Russia and Ukraine, this would, according to our estimates, equate to a maximum loss of 10% of 2022 EBITDA (Carlsberg stated that the two regions made up 9% of EBIT in 2021). In gross debt to EBITDA terms, this would equate to around 0.3x and Carlsberg would still be well within Moody’s 3.0x ceiling for the ‘Baa2’ rating (according to our estimates, Carlsberg ended 2021 with gross debt to EBITDA at 2.4x).
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