Fra analysefirmaet Factset:
For Q1 2016, S&P 500 companies are predicted to report year-over-year declines in both earnings (-8.7%) and revenues (-1.1%). Analysts currently do not expect earnings growth and revenue growth to return until Q3 2016.
As is usually the case, analysts are predicting significant increases in earnings and revenue growth in the 2nd half of the year. In terms of earnings, the estimated declines for Q1 2016 and Q2 2016 are -8.7% and -2.4%, while the estimated growth rates for Q3 2016 and Q4 2016 are 3.9% and 9.0%. In terms of revenues, the estimated declines for Q1 2016 and Q2 2016 are -1.1% and -0.9%, while the estimated growth rates for Q3 2016 and Q4 2016 are 1.8% and 4.1%.
For all of 2016, analysts are projecting earnings (+2.4%) and revenues (+1.4%) to increase year-over-year. Valuation: Forward P/E Ratio is 16.4, above the 10-Year Average (14.2) The forward 12-month P/E ratio is 16.4. This P/E ratio is based on Wednesday’s closing price (2036.71) and forward 12-month EPS estimate ($124.30).
At the sector level, the Energy (58.7) sector has the highest forward 12-month P/E ratio, while the Financials (12.4) sector has the lowest forward 12-month P/E ratio. The P/E ratio of 16.4 for the index as a whole is above the prior 5-year average forward 12-month P/E ratio of 14.4, and above the prior 10-year average forward 12-month P/E ratio of 14.2. It is also above the forward 12-month P/E ratio of 16.1 recorded at the start of the first quarter (December 31).
Since the start of the first quarter, the price of the index has decreased by 0.4%, while the forward 12-month EPS estimate has decreased by 2.1%. Eight sectors have forward 12-month P/E ratios that are above their 10-year averages, led by the Energy (58.7 vs. 14.0) sector. One sector (Information Technology) has a forward 12-month P/E ratio equal to the 10–year average (16.0). One sector (Telecom Services) has a forward 12-month P/E ratio below the 10-year average (13.7 vs. 14.7).
