Finanshus: Nu starter de amerikanske selskaber igen med store aktietilbagekøb

Note that we are close to flipping into negative gamma again where potential moves lower will be met with dealers selling.

1) Activity momentum is likely to stay weak, but Mislav expects equities to be meaningfully higher than current at the year-end.

2) Fed is unlikely to keep surprising the market on the hawkish side in 2H. The view of peaking yields has directed us towards the tactical call to buy back Growth style and Tech sector.

3) Earnings have been revised up so far ytd, and are at cyclical highs, but are finally likely to deteriorate in 2H.

4) International equities have de-rated to a discount to historical averages, at 10-12x forward P/Es.

5) Sentiment metrics are at lows. Positioning reduction has taken place, but there wasn’t a clear capitulation.