Formue

Finanshuse: Aktier kan løftes af enorm ledig likviditet og afvikling af shortpositioner

Uddrag fra Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Spotgamma:

New recent highs…

The “asymmetry” chart stressing bears

Guess our most recent bounce logic has some more room to squeeze…The asymmetry changed quickly and the CTA crowd needs to chase this further. The 1 week flow is not the interesting stuff. It is the projected 1 month flows that have huge asymmetry worth considering. Goldman’s Scott Rubner outlines:

In a “FLAT TAPE” over next 1-month we model -$14 Billion for SALE globally…nothing big

In a “UP 2SD” move over the next 1-month we model +$161.3 Billion to BUY globally…this is HUGE

In a “DOWN 2SD” move over the next 1-month we model -$60.7 Billion for SALE globally

Boss – “get rid of those puts”

The crowd loaded up on puts at recent market lows…and have been busy puking those puts as we have squeezed higher. Note there is some more selling of puts to be executed before people realize they spent all that money on pretty much worthless protection….again.

Spotgamma

Depressed NAAIM

Very bearish just in time for the violent bounce…

Tier1Alpha

Yields are back to the pre-Global financial crisis era

Bond yields across governments and corporates (%).

BofA

Oil equities outperformance: extreme

E&P outperformance slighted widened vs. the 12 mos. strip, totaling 23% over the past ~1.5 mos. (stocks up / oil down). According to the MS Thematic Strategy group, this level of relative outperformance vs. physical is rarely precedented, and in each instance, has corrected. Divergence has lasted above 20% for more than 2 mos. only three times – in the immediate aftermath of ’08, YE ’14, and in the wake of “Negative Oil” in 2020, each lasting slightly over 3 mos. In both ’08 and ’14, divergence results from oil prices dropping while stocks maintained their value, but still moved in the same direction as oil.

Morgan Stanley