Nogle økonomer kan bedst lide at kigge på historiske økonomiske nøgletal, når de skal sige noget om, hvordan det går med økonomien nu og fremad. eksempelvis er BNP vækst i Euroland i 1. kvartal 2016 blevet udlagt som om, at det går gpdt i europæiske økonomi. Faktum er dels at de ledende indikatorer faktisk så ganske godt ud i 1. kvartal, og at det derfor ikke er en overraskelse, at BNP tallene for første kvartal er nogenlunde pæne. Faktum er også, at PMI tallene for erhvervstilliden har vist en faldende tendens efter første kvartal, og at 1. kvartal faktisk er afsluttet for to måneder siden.
Her er hvad Markit skriver om den europæiske erhvervstillid i en flash melding for maj:
“A disappointing flash eurozone PMI for May adds further to the suggestion that the robust pace of economic growth seen in the first quarter will prove temporary. The PMI is signalling lacklustre GDP growth of only 0.3% in the second quarter.
“The forward-looking indicators also suggest that growth is more likely to weaken further than accelerate. Inflows of new work showed the smallest rise for nearly a year-and-a-half, while optimism about the business outlook in the service sector sank to its lowest since July 2015.
“There are signs of improving life in the ‘core’ countries of France and Germany, led mainly by their service sectors, as manufacturing continued to struggle. However, elsewhere the rate of expansion slowed to its weakest for almost one-and-a-half years.
“The survey therefore paints a picture of a region stuck in a low-growth phase, managing to eke out frustratingly modest output and employment gains despite various ECB stimulus ‘bazookas’, a competitive exchange rate and households benefitting from falling prices.”
