Uddrag fra John Authers:
Truss resigned, it appears, because she was told that she couldn’t go on. The loss of authority on show as Conservative MPs fought with each other in the division lobby on Wednesday night proved to be the final straw. She’s already out as party leader, but will continue in office until her successor is selected.
The rules for choosing that successor have been hastily revised to minimize the risk that the Conservatives make yet another embarrassing mistake. By Monday afternoon, anyone who wants to run will have to have amassed at least 100 nominations from MPs. There are some 357 Tory MPs, so no more than three candidates can get through this stage. MPs will then vote once to diminish the field to two, and then cast an indicative vote on the final two. Then it will be put to the Conservative membership in the country (of whom there are 172,000, who have paid dues of 25 pounds per year — with discounts for those under 26 or serving in the armed forces). The election of Truss over Rishi Sunak took place via postal ballot during six languid summer weeks; this one will be held online.
If only one candidate gets 100 nominations, that person gets to be prime minister without putting the question to the membership. If two emerge, then members can still vote against the candidate who won the MPs’ vote.
This system forces a vintage long weekend of Westminster skulduggery. At present, former chancellor Sunak seems certain to win 100 nominations, while Penny Mordaunt, currently leader of the House of Commons, is also likely to do so. A number of possible “caretaker” candidates, such as the current chancellor Jeremy Hunt, have ruled themselves out, so two big questions remain. One is whether the cultural anti-immigration right can put together 100 nominations for a candidate (probably Suella Braverman, who resigned as home secretary this week). The other is whether Boris Johnson, deposed in disgrace earlier this year, can persuade enough MPs to help him get his old job back. Both seem unlikely, but either Johnson (who now has enthusiastic support from the most influential pro-Conservative newspapers) or Braverman might well be more popular among party members than Sunak. This will be a critical juncture.
For markets, Mordaunt or (particularly) Sunak would be fine. They could probably piece together a credible cabinet by reinstating some of the casualties from years of post-Brexit infighting. A Johnson resurrection or a right-wing candidate could open the way for yet more fighting and instability, and slightly increase the risk of another financial accident. The strong likelihood that the Labour Party will form the next government in about two years remains unchanged. If the party avoids mistakes, it really ought to be able to beat the people who brought us the farce of the last month.
