Nordea har mod betaling udarbejdet denne analyse af Netcompany:
Given its H1 performance, the burning question post-Q2 was if Netcompany would issue a profit warning later in 2022. Based on company-compiled consensus and the share price in absolute and relative terms, this scenario seems to have been priced in. However, we still believe Netcompany will deliver according to its 2022 guidance, and thus see revenue growth and profitability picking up in H2. At end-Q2, it had 2022 revenue visibility of DKK 5.bn; versus its minimum DKK 5.4bn revenue guidance, this demands an in/out H2 order intake in line with the past. Ahead of the Q3 report, we have reduced 2023E revenue growth by 5 pp to 10% due to the looming recession, increased depreciations and interest costs. This, in combination with peer group multiple contraction, means our combined SOTP- and DCF-based valuation suggests a DKK 440-510 per share valuation range (was DKK 535-620). No refinancing before 2025.
Q3 2022E: Revenue growth and margin to improve
We expect Netcompany to deliver 19% organic and 69% reported revenue growth (consensus: 65%), partly due to an easier comparison period. Since its higher activity level should contribute to profitability, we forecast a 21.8% EBITDA margin (consensus: 21.3%), up 7.3 pp q/q. Intrasoft will likely see a larger negative impact from the timing of the summer holiday than Core, while we expect that the still higher-than-normal level of sickness will be less important in absolute terms.
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