Fra zerohedge:
While normal poll results have been delayed on Friday as the Brexit campaign takes a day off following Jo Cox’s death, moments ago JPM broke the polling embargo and as Reuters reports, JPMorgan said on Friday it saw a lead for the “Out” campaign in Britain’s European Union referendum, based on an analysis of opinion polls. “Our attempt to clean up the polls for methodological issues suggests a lead for leave in the 3-5 percent range at the time of writing,” researchers said in a note.
“The swing toward leave appears to have accelerated as we moved into the period when we would expect status quo bias to show,” they added, while warning that it was “now unlikely” that polls would offer clear guidance on the outcome.
While the lack of any official poll announcements today was sufficient to send cable soaring and undo some of the recent market gloom resulting from the surge for “Leave”, once the JPM report was revealed, GBP suffered a quick 50 pip drop.
What is more interesting is whether the JPM result will anchor expectations in the aftermath of yesterday’s tragic shooting which according to some would have swayed undecideds into the “Stay” camp. According to JPMorgan that is not the case.
