Formue

Finanshuse: Bigtech er løbet fra hele markedet, hvornår følger det efter?

NDX vs equal weight NDX is printing another new (daily) recent high. Impressive.

Refinitiv

The bull in NYFANG has the index up 50% YTD. The narrow rally continues to be very narrow. The question is whether or not investors will be forced to start chasing the rest of the market?

Refinitiv

The mega cap (AI) narrative continues to drive the mega tech cap bull (outlined in early May to our premium subs [This new bull market has a name (and a mega-theme)]here). The NYFANG is up around 13% since early May…and note RSI is getting very overbought. Of course, overbought can stay overbought for longer than most think possible, but you are not early for the short term trade at least.

Refinitiv

Credit where credit is due. GS sales trading team pointed out the relatively depressed SOX exposure and the fact the crowd started chasing semis a few days ago (here). SOX has exploded to the upside since touching the big trend line. Note first bigger resistance is slightly higher.

Refinitiv

Time to look beyond the debt ceiling?

JPM market intelligence team adds some color:

“The passage of the debt ceiling may mean a return to macro fundamentals, where earnings are holding up better than expected with margins (ex-Energy/Fins) higher on a QoQ basis and the expectation for earnings to accelerate higher from here. I understand the fears triggered by the inverted yield curve, but it seems unlikely that we see a recession when the unemployment rate is 3.5% and we are printing more than 200k jobs each month (253k was last print; 23Q1 average was 295k).”

The debt ceiling hedge from hell

Gold was seen by many as the”ultimate” debt ceiling risk hedge. This has proven to be the total opposite. Gold continues selling off sharply. We are well below the 50 day and trading at must hold levels here. A close slightly lower and the 100 day moving average as well as the longer term trend both come into play, at 1920 ish.

Refinitiv

Who needs protection?

SDEX index moving lower. Something we haven’t seen in a while. The crowd starting to be less inclined to pay up for downside protection as market moves higher only…

Refinitiv

Who needs protection (II)?

The crowd back to puking puts. They continue to love puts at local market lows, and hate them at local market highs…

Tradingview

Bears wet dream

“First half of a recession always sees a panic sell-off as no-one knows how bad it’s going to be…. Not clear why this time should be any different…”

Deutsche

On that short

As we have been pointing out for weeks, the big SPX short is short, but there are probably a lot of “neutralizing” positions against this big short. One of them is the long NDX, and there are obviously others as well.

Refinitiv