Fra BNParibas
Headline and control group sales were solid in July, reversing two months’ of prior weakness. Additionally, June’s negative print was revised up (by 0.5% for headline and 0.2% for control), further ameliorating what had been a recent soft patch.
* Headline retail sales rose 0.6% m/m in July, above our and consensus forecasts (0.5% and 0.3%, respectively). June headline sales were revised up to 0.3% m/m from -0.2% m/m, previously.
* Control group sales, which feed into the calculation of personal consumption in GDP and exclude sales of food services, building materials, autos and gasoline, also increased by 0.6% m/m, above our forecast and that of consensus (both 0.4% m/m). Control group sales were also revised up for June to 0.1% m/m from –
0.1% m/m previously.
* Motor vehicle and parts sales rose 1.2%, marking their fourth consecutive month of gains after contracting through the first three month of the year. They are now up 0.7% year to date and 5.5% year on year.
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Only three of thirteen major categories saw declines for the month (electronics, gasoline stations and clothing). Gasoline station sales have now contracted for five straight months, despite rises in retail gasoline prices in April and July.
- The solid July print, combined with June’s upward revision, signals healthier-than-expected consumer spending and introduces some upside risk to our Q3 personal consumption forecast of 2.4% q/q saar; currently, we are tracking personal consumption at about 2.8% q/q saa
