Analyser fra Finanshuse

ING: Problemer med skibsfarten i det røde hav vil fortsætte langt ind I 2024

“The Red Sea shipping crisis is still growing as almost half of vessels have been rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope in January. This has already more than tripled con­tainer rates, and delays and knock-on effects may drag on to the second quarter. No quick fix for Red Sea shipping risks, impact potentially drags on to 2Q. Vessel crossings nearly cut in half as number of rerouted vessels mounts. Container vessels most at risk from Red Sea troubles. Tan­kers continue to sail, but the number is diminishing as risk of assaults comes at a cost. Container rates on most effe­cted Asia-Europe route more than tripled while the global average doubled. Container rates rebounded quickly and more may follow. Red sea crisis in a different category for shipping than the pandemic disruption. Mounting sur­charges complicate the market. Shipping costs up again and delays hit consumer markets in subsequent months.” Container liner profitability expected to recover in 1Q.

Goldman Sachs om tre Top of Mind-temaer i 2024

“Markets worried first about growth, but then sticky in­flation, Which meant that higher interest rates could be here for the duration. This higher-for-longer rate environ­ment came with consequences galore, Bringing bank panics, corporate credit concerns, and commercial real estate risks to the fore. Notable political and geopolitical developments also occurred, Like rising US-China tensi­ons, which makes more decoupling all but assured. The US hitting its debt limit, which, as usual, set off a political fight, And the Israel-Hamas war, which thrust the Middle East back into the spotlight. Amid all that, two longer-term questions attracted heated debate: Can US economic and asset outperformance continue? And is the potential of generative AI really that great?” Dokumentet er her.

ABN Amro: Priser på det europæiske naturgasmarked trender nedad

“European gas markets are relaxed with the heating season entering its second half with high storage levels, sustained supplies, and low industrial demand. Impact on prices of attacks in the red sea have been limited but the market remains vigilant to any further escalation. The USA emerges as the world’s top exporter of LNG in 2023. In December and early January, European gas pri­ces sustained the downward trend that has been in place since mid-October. The European month ahead TTF price averaged 35.12 EUR/MWh in the past 40 days, touching a five-month low of 30.57 EUR/MWh. The mild weather and higher than average storage level for this time of year were the main factors that boosted market confidence in the ability of Europe to bypass this winter without any supply disruptions.” Dokumentet er her.

Førende amerikanske M&A-advokater om udsigterne for 2024

Nogle af USA’s førende M&A-advokater, Wachtell, Lipton, Rosen & Katz, skriver i en status for M&A-markedet: ”Pri­vate equity investors and dealmakers faced considerable uncertainty heading into 2023 following a challenging 2022. Indeed, the headwinds that slowed private equity in 2022 – among others, rising interest rates, persistent inflation, widely divergent valuation expectations, market and geopolitical upheavals and heightened regulatory scrutiny – endured in 2023, and new challenges emerged. Private equity continued to show resilience, however, as sophisticated dealmakers deployed innovative approa­ches to fill financing gaps and get deals done, and as a number of sponsors continued their transformation from buyout shops to alternative asset managers offering a broad range of capital solutions both in the M&A context and beyond, including private credit (…) 2024 holds the potential to reverse two years of deal-volume declines, especially if interest rate cuts and the much-hoped-for soft landing materialize. But, as the last several years have shown, the only market feature that is predictable is surprise, particularly in an election year. As in the past, we expect that sponsors will continue to find innovative wed­ges to new dealmaking and adapt as market conditions inevitably change.”

Morten W. Langer