Analyser af ledelse, geopolitik, AI og digitalisering

Disse lande bliver hårdest ramte på handelsdisrupti­ons fra Det Røde Hav. Danmark i den tunge del.” Dis­ruption to shipping in the Red Sea could push up prices and weigh on trade and economic activity. Our Chart of the Week maps the share of external seaborne trade (imports and exports) of EU countries with main trading partners in the Middle East and Asia (through which tra­de would typically transit via the Red Sea route). We also plot each EU country’s total seaborne trade as a share of that country’s nominal GDP (so-called trade openness), to show the importance of seaborne trade in that country’s economy. Among the main eurozone countries, Greece, Italy and Spain look to be the most exposed countries. The external trade by sea to the Middle East and Asia repre­sents between 14% and 10% of their total foreign trade given their strong reliance on imports from those countri­es (particularly from China). Importantly, more than 70% of their trade with the Middle East and Asia is seaborne. Moreover, the trade openness of these economies to seaborne foreign trade (grey triangle) is relatively high. Therefore, they are likely to be more exposed to the risk of prolonged disruption in the Red Sea. Germany is also particularly exposed, although a lower portion of its trade with the Middle East and Asia consists of seaborne trans­portation (50-60%).” Læs hele analysen her.

Deutsche Bank: AI Outlook for 2024. “This is a pivotal year for generative AI to move beyond experimentation to implementation and for winners and losers to begin to emerge. AI will also collide with the ballot box for the first time. Regulation, or its absence, at this pivotal moment will have a permanent legacy. Five critical battlegrounds to watch this year: 1. Copyright becomes first test of AI win­ners and losers − The New York Times suit against OpenAI will be a key test case. − Legal cases and antitrust probes are filling a regulatory vacuum. − Copyright exemplifies where AI value is created and who gets paid. 2. Open-sour­ce models challenge proprietary giants − The dominance of proprietary models like ChatGPT may not last. − Simp­ler, cheaper open-source alternatives are spreading fast. − Regulatory choices on open source will define the future of AI.” Læs hele resuméet her.

Commerzbank: The Unstoppable Mr. Trump. “Donald Trump has also clearly won the primaries in New Hamp­shire. The remaining rival for the Republican presidential nomination, Nikki Haley, has therefore probably missed her last chance. Trump’s opponents must now hope for the courts – or for an as yet unforeseeable swing of the ap­proval rate in favor of President Biden. The ship has sailed for other candidates Donald Trump clearly won yesterday’s Republican primaries in New Hampshire. According to the Wall Street Journal, he received 55% of the votes after al­most all ballots had been counted, while his rival Nikki Ha­ley only received 43%. Haley has therefore missed her best chance to challenge Trump for the Republican presidential nomination after all. Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, had already withdrawn his candidacy at the weekend and thrown his support behind Donald Trump. After two prima­ries so far, Trump has only secured 31 of the approximately 2,400 delegates who will officially nominate the Republican Party’s presidential candidate at the party convention in July. However, Haley has staked everything on turning the mood in her favor with a victory in New Hampshire. This has not been successful and there is therefore little to suggest that she will be able to reduce the wide lead that Trump has in the polls. Even before New Hampshire, the political bet­ting markets gave Trump an 85% probability of winning the nomination, compared to just under 9% for Haley. [1] If no­thing else comes up, Donald Trump will therefore probably be the Republican candidate for the presidential election on November 5. What else could prevent his election as the next US president?” Læs hele analysen her.

Citigroup: 10 internet trends I 2024. “Trend # 1: Gen AI Tools Drive Online Ad Expansion and Return on Ad Spend. Citi Research analysts now say a somewhat stabilizing macro environment should further unlock ad budgets while 2024 also benefits from being both an election year and an Olympics year. Online already accounts for ~70- 75%+ of ad budgets overall, although the analysts say that growing engagement, newer online ad formats (like retail media, video, and short-form video), and improving mea­surement tools are leading to improved conversion rates overall.” Læs hele analysen her.

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