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Merril Lynch: Semiconductors og AI-hypen er måske overdrevet på den korte bane, men ikke på længere sigt: “Semis: Why They Should Matter So Much for Investors: 2023 was the year that put Artificial Intelligence (AI) front and center of the next big thing in Technology, if not a new economic revolution. Before investors had a chance to understand the investment implications from this technology, a run up on these stocks was due to a “fear of missing out” (FOMO) as stocks appreciated beyond their historic valuations. Several of these stocks were in the semiconductor (Semi) industry and were deemed the AI compute engines behind the infrastructure build out of large language models (LLM) that will potentially enable machines to have the cognitive ability to displace a multitude of jobs. The run in AI-related stocks may prove overdone in the near term, but AI could be even bigger than people think in the long term. AI could be the next frontier, but markets tend to front run the effect of new technologies before they generate actual returns, thus creating volatile investment cycles.”
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ABN Amro: Shipping-disruptions i det røde hav ses kun at have marginal betydning for inflationen: ”Since our Global Outlook 2024 publication in early December, the US economy has clearly slowed, the eurozone is stabilising at weak levels, and China’s growth momentum continues to be weighed by the stumbling property sector. The broad trend has been in line with expectations. However, the US economy has continued to defy expectations for an even sharper slowdown, while the incoming data suggests the risks to eurozone GDP – in the very near-term – if anything look a little tilted to the downside. What about going forward? The core drivers of activity continue to suggest a transatlantic convergence in growth patterns. The fading impulse from excess savings and a cooling labour market are likely to weigh on consumption in the US. In the eurozone, the recovery in real incomes following the easing of the energy crisis and the catch-up in wages is expected to drive a modest recovery as the year progresses.“
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Morgan Stanley: M&A-markedet parat til et comeback I 2024. Her er fem grunde: “Mergers and acquisitions are due for a comeback in 2024 after a slowdown in 2023, according to Morgan Stanley Investment Banking. A number of factors contributed to a muted M&A environment last year. Global inflation remained elevated for much of 2023, only receding at the end of the year; as a result, central banks kept interest rates at higher levels to cool inflation, which increased borrowing costs for buyers looking to finance M&A deals. Additionally, equity markets were challenged throughout much of the year, bringing down valuations and creating uncertainty. Finally, large M&A transactions continue to face increased regulatory scrutiny, which impacted the number of megadeals in 2023.”
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ING: Et nærmere kig på energi-performance i det nye bygningsdirektiv. EU vurderer, at 75 pct. af bygningerne i EU er energi-ineffektive, men Danmark ligger godt: “The Energy Performance of Building Directive recast is moving a step closer to the finish line by reaching a provisional agreement. Renovation goals for residential and non-residential buildings and the gradual phasing out of fossil fuel heating are part of the changes. Banks are expected to have an essential role in financing the transition.”
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ING: Energipriser i Europa normaliseres. Energikrisen er bag os: “The energy crisis is behind us, and the European Commission has taken action to prevent further disruption over the coming years. European utilities will continue to grow in terms of both cash flow generation and investment, but at a less hectic pace. The extremely elevated power prices seen in 2022 and 2023 are also entering into a normalisation phase . Actions have been taken to avoid another energy crisis. Power prices will retrench further in 2024 but remain elevated. Elevated prices and a sluggish economy could continue to destroy electricity demand. European utilities’ cash flow generation to progress again. Regulated network activities to drive the growth for the sector. “
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Morten W. Langer
