Næsten samme BNP-vækst per capita i eurozonen som i USA: Analyser fra internationale finanshuse

Unicredit (Erik F. Nielsen): Næsten samme BNP-vækst per capita i eurozonen som i USA: “First, during the past 25 years, eurozone per capita GDP growth has – on average – been broadly equivalent to that of the US, even though the US economy is more flexible on all available measures. And, given the significantly greater widening of US income distribution during this period than in Europe, a backside-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that 80%- 90% of the eurozone population has enjoyed greater per capital income growth than the 80%-90% “bottom” part of the US population. Only three distinct periods stand out when the eurozone clearly underperformed the US, none of which had little – if anything – to do with the euro: Fol­lowing the Great Financial Crisis, Europe took much lon­ger than the US to clean up its banking system. I count that as a policy mistake. Then following the eurozone sovereign crisis, Europe introduced an unusual degree of fiscal austerity. The policy’s defenders call it “short term pain for long term gain”, but as the gain remained elusive for years, legitimate questions as to what “long term” me­ans have been raised.”

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ABNamro: How big is the impact of extreme weather on GDP? “Our scenarios incorporate four acute physical risk hazards: heatwaves, drought, flooding and tropical cyclones. The frequency of these hazards under different scenarios are combined with location characteristics to produce impacts. These are then translated to the bro­ader economy using transmission mechanisms. Globally, GDP impact from drought is largest, while in Europe the impact from heatwaves is largest. The impacts are depen­dent on how the hazard is defined and on the transmis­sion mechanisms. Acute physical risk damages are sig­nificantly more sizeable in the fourth vintage, with GDP losses at 8% by 2050 in Current Policies, against 1.4% in the previous version.”

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Goldman Sachs: 2024: The year of elections: “Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Ap­pendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. With voters representing over half the world’s population – in the US, Europe, India, and beyond – expected to head to the polls this year, 2024 is the year of elections. We ask veteran diplomat Richard Haass what to watch for: a continued global trend of “de­mocratic backsliding”,a which is setting the stage for less liberal challengers/populists to succeed. And we speak to Oxford’s Timothy Garton Ash, who believes this trend may well continue in Europe. But Haass and Garton Ash agree: the US election will be the most consequential ele­ction this year by far, not only for the US but for the world. Brookings’ Elaine Kamarck explains the complicated US election process, and GS GIR economists and strategists assess typical patterns for domestic policy and assets du­ring election years—and how this year may differ. Final­ly, we discuss how to position for the US election today despite large uncertainty, finding potential opportunity in long Dollar optionality, upside on longer-dated rates, and positions that could benefit from steeper yield curves or are levered to geopolitical risk.”

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ING: What to expect from European sectors in 2024: “Many EU sectors are set to face weak development in 2024. Manufacturing, staffing and construction are like­ly to witness a decline, but not all sectors will lose their footing. Transport and retail volumes will see a slight re­covery, and Technology, Media and Telecom (TMT) will show lower – but still high – growth figures. Overskrifter: Freight transport picks up after post-pandemic correc­tion. No signs of relief for manufacturing yet. Room for growth in food manufacturing. No miracles for the retail sector, but signs of recovery emerge. Grim outlook for European staffing. Marginal decline in volumes for con­struction.TMT growth set to remain high. Uncertainty in commercial real estate, but some room for optimism.”

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Morten W. Langer