Uddrag fra Zerohedge:
Everyone knows that they will beat, but the question is by how much. Everyone knows that it is a darling long and that this mega-theme is not in any shape or form over yet, but the question is how much “sell the news” fast money there is in the stock right now. Everyone knows that the latest prints have led to some weaker share price, but the question is if the history will repeat itself. Buckle up! This is almost as exciting as when Nokia was the largest company in Europe AND reported intra-day.
NVDA – one way street
Option market sentiment is very bullish going into NVDA earnings. Put/call open interest ratio and skew is basically trading at the lowest levels in 5 years.
Source: Barclays
How bullish is bullish?
NVDA options “bullishly tilted” stats via Nomura:
1.7%ile 3m Skew (10 year lookback)
3.1%ile 3m Put Skew
97.4%ile 3m Call Skew
96.1%ile 1m ATM iVol
97.3%ile 3m iVol / rVol
NVDA technicals
First support around 667 (21 day moving). Then 630 and after that the 50 day down around 575.
Source: Refinitiv
History to repeat itself?
1. NVDA is now up >50% since last quarter’s earnings, surpassing both GOOGL & AMZN in market cap
2. Investors are looking for Nvidia to once again deliver a clear beat-and-raise print
3. For context, Nvidia has beat revenue by ~$2bn the last couple of quarters
4. Recent history of NVDA prints have been suggestive of more local top moments than break-out moments …
Source: Peter Callahan
NVDA call open interest
Implied move around 11%. Let’s see how this plays out, but given the fact retail options trading has revived big time lately, a lot of punters will learn how resetting volatility post earnings works.
Source: GS
Never ending NVDA takes
Tech specialist sales at research-driven Sanford Bernstein on the NVDA setup:
1. The key issue (apart from lofty expectations) is that lead times for the H100 have come down from the 8-11 month time frame a few months ago to what seems like the 3-4 month timeline currently, which has some investors debating if this is just improved supply or a change in demand.
2. Bernstein’s sense is that the buyside bar for the F2Q datacenter revenue guide has crept closer to $20B, $1B+ above sell-side consensus.
3. NVDA remains a very crowded long and expectations are high, so investors likely want to see continued momentum for GenAI and Hopper ramping, with growth in Datacenter revenues in CY2024 and potentially through CY2025. (Bernstein)
One more on NVDA
“Two years ago the S&P energy sector was 5x the size of Nvidia….today Nvidia is bigger than all the energy stocks in the S&P500 combined….helping Tech to now stand at 30% of the S&P 500….while energy has fallen to just 4%. Let’s see how these stats change tomorrow.” (Bobby Molavi)
Can it?
NVDA EPS growth projections (grey) aren’t modest…
Source: Bloomberg
There will always be competition, even for NVDA
Masayoshi Son is reportedly looking to raise $100B to launch ‘Project Izanagi,’ an AI chip venture to compete with NVIDIA and push towards AGI. Why it matters: Global titans are racing to acquire the shovels for the AI chip gold rush, and Izanagi brings another well-funded challenger to the arena. If creating AGI is a matter of continuing to scale compute power, these new ventures may help avoid projected chip shortages that stand in the way. (Rundown AI)
NVDA hiring bonanza
Hiring at NVDA is up an astonishing +330% year-on-year, with California and Texas showing the highest number of open job listings. “Hiring can be a leading indicator of corporate performance, and NVIDIA’s stock price is up +198% over the same time period.” (Thinknum.com)
SOX levels
SOX is down to the trend line that has been in place since the October bull started. This is a big level. A close below and the 50 day is the next big support, around 4230. Resistance is the 4600 area. Let’s see what NVDA decides doing…
