Analyser fra internationale finanshuse

Saxo Banks Steen Jakobsen: Vi står midt i det mest manipulerede aktiemarked længe, og så er det valgår. ”We also predict the market is just a sneeze, a cough, maybe a minor allergic reaction away from a long overdue consolidation phase. Not a market crash, mind you, just a brief respite for everyone to catch their breath (and maybe top off their margin accounts). Of course, logic and valuation would suggest a significant correction is inevitable. But hey, it’s an election year! And wouldn’t you know it, the “establishment” will do absolutely anything to keep the market and economy looking like a freshly manicured lawn, even if it means using a weed whacker disguised as a watering can. Expect the Fed and ECB to pre-empt the inevitable low point in the inflation cycle with a generous dose of stimulus. Quantitative tightening? More like quantitative “maybe later, honey”. In other words, we’re dealing with the most manipulated market in history, all happening during a glorious super-cycle of ever-expanding debt. The US government has spent a cool $3 trillion on fiscal initiatives, netting a measly $2.4 trillion in return.”

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Danske Bank: Udsigt til vækst, også uden for Novo Nordisk. ”Som andre europæiske lande er Danmark mere eller mindre i en økonomisk stagnation, bare med den tilføjelse, at væksten i Novo Nordisk trækker den samlede aktivitet op, mens mange andre industrivirksomheder og boligbyggeriet er gået tilbage. • Vi forventer, at væksten mere bredt i økonomien gradvist vender tilbage i løbet af 2024 og 2025, blandt andet hjulpet af rentenedsættelser og stigende privatforbrug. • Til trods for stagnationen er beskæftigelsen blevet ved med at stige, og det trækker op i husholdningernes samlede indkomst – det giver plads til at øge privatforbruget, nu hvor lønningerne stiger, også selv om det kommer til at gå den anden vej for beskæftigelsen.”

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JP Morgan: Hvad har den amerikanske centralbank tidligere gjort i valgår? Under overskriften ”What has the Fed done in election years?” skriver finanshuset, at “With monetary policy still at the forefront of the macro landscape in 2024, investors are left wondering how the election might influence Fed policymakers. Historically, the Fed doesn’t sit on the sidelines during election years, but rather continues to pursue its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment, while maintaining its independence from politics. Since 1980, the Fed has either hiked or cut rates in every single election except 2012, when rates were at zero and the economy was still healing from the financial crisis. Otherwise, the Fed cut rates in five election years and hiked in five election years. Some years were more active than others: in 1980, the Fed hiked 1%, then cut rates by 5.5% between February and July when the economy fell into recession but resumed rate hikes to continue battling double-digit inflation between August and November.”

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ING: Rekordstort udbud af erhvervsobligationer, og næsten tilsvarende stor efterspørgsel. ”Corporate supply remained very busy, unusual for February due to earnings season. The record-breaking supply of €42bn was even up on January’s €36bn. As such YTD supply now sits in excess of all previous years at €78bn. We expect supply will remain busy throughout the coming months as market conditions remain favourable and more uncertainty lies ahead later this year, thus front loading is being seen. In addition, demand remains very strong for these new issues as books are very strong sitting above average, despite the very low NIPs. We did, however, see demand falter slightly last week as investors began to indicate a need for more NIP at these relatively tight spread levels.”

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Bain: Fem temaer, der fundamentalt vil ændre engross-banking: ”Wholesale banks will likely face slower growth over the next few years, while heavy spending on IT puts pressure on short-term profitability. Our extensive interviews with wholesale banking CEOs and senior executives suggest that returning to growth will require responses to several trends affecting the industry. Three of the trends revolve around technology: modernizing core IT, putting generative artificial intelligence to work, and adopting digital assets. Another trend involves attracting and motivating employees who have different priorities than in the past. And the final trend concerns the opportunities presented by climate-related financing and carbon markets.”

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Morten W. Langer