Analyser fra internationale finanshuse

ABNamro: ECB begynder at tale om rentenedsættelser. “The ECB kept its key policy rates on hold as expected. In the press release, it talked about rate cuts explicitly for the first time. It noted that if its ‘updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission were to further increase its confidence that inflation is converging to the target in a sustained manner, it would be appropriate to reduce the current level of monetary policy restriction’. These conditions seem to be already largely met. The ECB’s March inflation projection already showed inflation somewhat undershooting the target over the medium term and the press release confirmed that ‘incoming information has broadly confirmed the Governing Council’s previous assessment of the medium-term inflation outlook.”

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Unicredit: To måneder til valg til EU-parlamentet. “The upcoming European Parliament (EP) election is due to take place on 6-9 June 2024. Our Chart of the Week provides an update of indications from opinion polls, in terms of the number of seats political groups are expected to win compared to six months ago and compared to the number of outgoing MPs elected in 2019. • Compared to six months ago, the main trends appear to be the following. There has been an increase in the number of seats projected to be won by the center-right European People’s Party (EPP), and, according to national polls conducted in the main EU countries, this looks to mirror an improvement in the prospects of the Italy’s Forza Italia, the Spanish Partido Popular and the German CDU-CSU. In March, the EPP formally nominated President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen as its Spitzenkandidat. • In contrast, polls suggest there has been a decline in the number of seats likely to be won by the center-left Socialists and Democrats Group (S&D). Moreover, Renew Europe has continued to lose ground over the last six months, as the French Renew coalition has suffered a further decline in popularity, especially compared to the French Rassemblement National, which belongs to the Identity and Democracy Group (ID). In Germany, Italy and Spain, the popularity of parties affiliated with Renew Europe does not seem to be taking off. While seat polls had shown gains by the ID compared to six months ago, those gains have partly faded in the latest polls. Lastly, progress by the European Conservatives and Reformists Group (ECR) has slowed to a halt recently.”

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JP Morgan: Guldprisen styres mest af spekulation. ”Last week, gold prices broke above $2,300 per ounce for the first time ever. Gold prices have been climbing for a number of reasons, among which may be more hope for a soft landing and upcoming rate cuts in the U.S. This is because the opportunity cost of investing in gold, which is not an income-producing asset, decreases when interest rates fall. Recent dovish messaging from the Fed has increased investor demand for gold ahead of expected rate cuts this summer. Also, gold may be attracting investors concerned about ongoing global conflicts, as it is widely considered a safe-haven asset. Lastly, China’s real estate crisis has pushed more domestic investors toward gold.”

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Commerzbank: Germany – Debt brake as a bone of contention: “The debt brake has been the bone of contention within German politics at least since the recent ruling of the Federal Constitutional Court. The scope for new debt will even be reduced in the coming years. From 2028, the “emergency loans” taken out in recent years will have to be repaid and there will be extensive additional spending on defense and pensions. This is likely to further increase the political pressure to “reform” the debt brake and ultimately lead to it being relaxed. The most likely scenario is that investments will be given preferential treatment, although the resulting additional scope for other expenditure is likely to be less than some might hope for.”

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Morten W. Langer