Analyser fra internationale finanshuse

DNB Markets: ‘Higher for even longer’. “With improved household purchasing power and solid underlying investment momentum, supported by the ongoing deglobalisation trend and the climate and energy transition, Western economies are poised for decent growth over the next three years, with merely modest increases in unemployment rates. The flip side of the coin is persistently higher growth in input and labour costs and inflation than in the 15 years preceding the pandemics. In our view, this limits both the frequency and the extent of central bank rate cuts going forward.”

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Goldman Sachs: AI infrastructure stocks are poised to be the next phase of investment. “Interest in generative artificial intelligence is intensifying, as measured by internet search volumes, news stories, and more discussion of the topic than ever before on fourth-quarter earnings calls. The economic potential of the new technology has helped lift the stock market to new highs, led by Nvidia, the maker of specialized chips that are crucial to run generative AI models. Now a key question for investors is: What happens next as the AI rally broadens to involve more companies? According to Goldman Sachs Research, if Nvidia represents the first phase of the AI trade, Phase 2 will be about other companies that are helping to build AI-related infrastructure. Phase 3 deals with companies incorporating AI into their products to boost revenue, while Phase 4 is about the AI-related productivity gains that should be possible across many businesses.”

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ING: Vores første tanker om det amerikanske valg og den potentielle indvirkning på Europa og markederne. “The US election is fast approaching and while we know Joe Biden and Donald Trump will surely be slugging it out once again, we’re lacking clear manifestos. So what are the broad policy intentions, and what will they mean for the world? Not forgetting, of course, how far and fast they go will be determined by the outcome of the Congressional elections.”

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Unicredit: USA imødegår Kina på mindst tre fronter: Gennem en ekspansion af østasiatiske militære alliancer, handelspolitik og hjem-sourcing af strategisk produktion. ”Examples of all three were on full display this past week: First, Japan’s PM Fumio Kishida arrived in Washington last week for a full state visit with an announcement of ramped-up military and intelligence cooperation between the US and Japan. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. then flew in for a trilateral meeting, all predominantly focused on containing China’s military capabilities in the South China Sea, as well as towards Taiwan. It’s impressive how Chinese policies in the region have mended fences between other Asian nations, making the US alliance building easier. Second, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen wrapped up her visit to China, which she used to warn China against its practices of subsidizing production and then dumping excess supply on global markets. Presently, this applies particularly to green-tech products, including wind turbines and electric cars. (Meanwhile, the European Commission announced that it will launch an investigation into Chinese hidden subsidies for its wind turbine businesses sector. Commissioner Vestager, who is leading the investigation, delivered a remarkably succinct description of what she called “the Chinese playbook” in her Bloomberg interview on Friday: They invite JVs, they then demand the transfer of technology, they provide heavy subsidies to build domestic capacity, they then close off their own markets while exporting at prices nobody can compete with, concluding: “Knowing that you have been played teaches you to watch out and be better prepared”.) Here is my safe bet: Regardless of who wins the US election in November, the US will impose additional tariffs on Chinese products next year – and so will Europe. And China will retaliate.”

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Morten W. Langer