Analyser af ledelse, geopolitik, AI og digitalisering

Erik F. Nielsen fra Unicredit: Geopolitics is indeed bad. ”US-China relations are deteriorating rapidly as economic policies adjust to support the national security concerns. Geopolitics and US-China relations. The issue of US-China relations occupied more time in my schedule than any other topic, partly triggered by what someone with huge direct experience in US foreign policy matters described to me about the future US-China relations: “The best one can hope for is a managed decline”, adding that a Trump administration would turn this into chaos, disguised as transactional policies. But first the (relatively) good news: In terms of military matters, relations have continued to improve gradually since the deep trough triggered by former Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August 2022, followed by the Chinese irritation at the US Government’s public shooting down of the Chinese spy balloon in February 2023. This led to a period with virtually no communication between the two sides. (“For months, China wouldn’t take our calls, not even from the President” as one US official put it to me.) But things have improved and a number of half-way decent communication channels have been reestablished at several levels. In terms of economic policy matters, however, things are deteriorating rapidly as the US moves forward with the subordination of economic policies to its national security interests.“

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38-sider rapport fra Goldman Sachs: ADAPTATION Physical risk, Financial risk, Opportunity: ”We believe Adaptation – proactive or reactive measures to mitigate impacts of rising temperatures – will become a growing theme even if global temperature rise is limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the most bullish scenario in the Paris Agreement. We believe investors and corporates will focus on Adaptation through the lens of physical risk, nancial risk, and revenue opportunity. In our report, we segment proactive and reactive drivers of Adaptation investment – to fully address Adaptation challenges, $400 bn per year of proactive investment would be required this decade in our view. We map Adaptation revenue streams and assess risk exposure to nine di erent potential hazards. (..) Why Adaptation will likely be a rising theme regardless of climate outcome. We believe investor and corporate focus on Adaptation is beginning to increase, a function of the realization of potential risks/impacts/opportunities even in a bullish 1.5C temperature rise scenario vs. pre-industrial levels or if temperature rise exceeds these levels. Since 1970, the world has seen an acceleration in temperature rise vs. the 1850-1900 average. We believe investors and corporates will in the near to medium term: n Take increased measures to quantify physical risk. n Increase investments towards Adaptation mitigation/solutions. n Look for new ways of gaining exposure to Adaptation solutions.”

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Deutsche Bank: Latest in AI: Google conference, Tik-Tok influencers and ethical AI for writers. “Cloud Next conference: Google makes cutting-edge Gemini 1.5 Pro model more widely available, says it will integrate the model into Cloud, and releases new chip What happened? Google made a string of announcements at its annual Cloud Next conference last week, including: 1. Google’s latest AI large language model (LLM), Gemini 1.5 Pro, is now available in a public preview worldwide, two months after its private preview for developers and some enterprise customers. We wrote about why its unprecedentedly large working memory marks a giant leap towards an AI future here. 2. The Gemini 1.5 Pro model will be woven into the company’s cloud offering in due course, allowing customers to code more efficiently and identify cybersecurity threats quicker. 16 April 2024 Thematic Research Deutsche Bank AG Page 3 3. The company will release a new custom microprocessor called Axion for customers of its data centers later this year. The new generalist Central Processing Unit (CPU) is based on industry-standard Arm technology to handle the enormous AI workload it expects from its customers. This matters because: n Google’s most advanced generative AI is now finally available for use by nearly all enterprises in the Google AI Studio and developers in Vertex AI, a platform to build applications.” Læs hele analysen her.

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