Goldman Sachs: Hvor investerbar er Europa egentlig?
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision… Just as Europe emerged from two years of stagnation, weak survey data, increased political risk, and structural issues have put the region’s outlook back in question. So, how significant are these challenges, and how investable is Europe? GS GIR’s Jari Stehn sees a dimmer cyclical outlook, which could become even more so if Trump is reelected and implements his proposed tariffs. Bruegel’s Jean Pisani-Ferry is slightly less concerned about potential Trump tariffs in the short term but worries about the lack of cyclical momentum and risk of a more isolationist US. In all, BlackRock’s Helen Jewell believes Europe is quite investable and expects European equity outperformance vs. the US, while GS GIR’s Sharon Bell sees a trickier investing landscape. But both see compelling opportunities in Europe and highlight one particular area: the UK.” Læs hele analysen her
ABN AMRO: Mindst hver 6. Artikel 8 og 9 bæredygtigheds-fonde bryder nye ESMA regler: ”As investors show increasing interest in sustainability matters, there has been an increasing inflow of money towards funds that portray a sustainability focus. As a result, some funds have adopted sustainability-related terms in their names, as a way of promoting and attracting more attention. Although investors should consider more than a funds’ name when deciding in what to invest, the name of a fund acts as an efficient marketing tool. This might ultimately create the wrong incentives for funds that, despite not investing in sustainable companies, misuse sustainability-terms in their names. Following concerns about this risk of greenwashing, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) published guidelines for funds’ names. The final report, which was disclosed last May, follows a public consultation conducted in 2022 and subsequent changes made to the draft proposal. The guidelines are asking funds that use ESG-, transition-, and impact-related terms in their names to meet a quantitative threshold for sustainable investments and minimum safeguards.” Læs hele analysen her
Commerzbank: ”Is there really demand for a digital euro?” The ECB is pressing ahead with plans for a digital euro. But does it really offer concrete benefits to citizens? The ECB is emphasising the advantages of the planned digital euro. If citizens had access to the ECB’s money not only in physical form as banknotes, but also digitally as balances in ECB accounts or on mobile phones, this would promote innovations in payment systems, reduce dependence on foreign payment service providers and increase Europe’s strategic autonomy. However, the ECB implicitly assume that citizens appreciate the digital euro. For this to happen, it would have to offer concrete advantages to individuals. However, this is questionable. Only a small part of deposits is absolutely safe…” Læs hele analysen her
Merril Lynch: Betydningen af faldende fertilitet i Europa: “Europe: Immigration has supported recent population growth in the European Union (EU), driven in part by the ongoing war in Ukraine. However, immigration won’t be enough to stave off the region’s increasingly ageing population. Indeed, the EU’s working-age population peaked in size 15 years ago – and is set to decline by another 18 pct. between 2024 and 2050 … More concerning still: by the end of this decade, the contribution of labor to GDP growth in the EU is expected to turn negative. Decades of low birth rates remain a headwind to the region. More women across Europe have chosen to forego having children, with the incidence of childlessness at least doubling in Italy, Spain, Portugal, Poland, and others across generations. Perhaps it’s unsurprising, then, that EU births in 2023 registered below levels not forecast for another two decades…“ Læs hele analysen her
Morten W. Langer
