Uddrag fra The Market Ear:
The macro stays poor
Are we ever going to see a real turn-around in the China economy? The best thing we can say about China is that it is at least not going from “bad to worse”, but the problem is that most indicators seem to stay stuck in weak territory. Light positioning and cheap valuation will of course trigger short-term tactical trading opportunities but they need to be with very tight stops. Here are (again) a series of negative China macro charts.
Weak domestic demand
China retail sales are flailing, falling below industrial production, as the government has propped up its export sector but mostly ignored its consumer sector.
Source: Yardeni
Where is the policy support?
LGSB issuance has been significantly slower than in previous years.
Source: CEIC
Weak stimulus
Chinese bank loans and M2 have cratered, falling to their lowest levels in at least two decades.
Source: Yardeni
Negative impulse
Negative credit impulse is a growing headwind.
Source: Goldman
Urban unemployment
Urban unemployment rates are on the rise.
Source: Haver
Falling rates
Rapidly declining interest rates aren’t encouraging investment or spending, as the economy is overleveraged. Instead, households are investing in government bonds with few other places to put their capital, pushing rates further down.
Source: Yardeni
Everyone is a China housing bear
The share of urban households expecting falling house prices reached a new high in Q2.
Source: Haver
China delinquency
Bank credit card delinquency rate has increased.
Source: Haver
China shrinking
At least in terms of oil demand. China oil demand is shrinking.
