Merril/Bank of America: The August Market Meltdown in Perspective: “Volatility made an unmistakable return to the U.S. stock market this month. August kicked off with a three-day selloff in U.S. Equities, building off market turbulence that started mid-July. It was never a matter of if but when the stock market would see volatility pick up again though, since U.S. Equities had been in an extended period of calm. Even with a recent cooldown in selling pressure, the shadow of the early-August meltdown looms over the equity market. Of course, not all selloffs are the same, but history may offer some perspective on navigating periods of elevated market volatility. For one thing, August tends to be a historically weak seasonal period for the S&P 500, but a strong first half is typically a positive signal for a strong second half. Volatility also tends to be clustered. The S&P 500 registered both the largest daily decline and gain since 2022 at the start of this month.” Læs hele analysen her.
ING: US presidential election: Three scenarios for markets. The next president of the United States and the parties that will control Congress will have a major say in where financial markets head over the coming years. So, just what might happen to FX, Rates, Commodities, and Credit Markets whoever wins? Welcome to our scenarios. No one can predict what’s going to happen on 5 November when Americans go to the polls to elect either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris. However, we have tried to look at various scenarios which could affect asset classes via domestic, foreign and trade policy. We’ll be writing extensively on this over the coming weeks.” Læs hele analysen her.
NATIXIS: Election2024: Meet Kamala Harris (alloveragain). “Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris has back tracked from many of the views she held as a candidate for her party’s nomination in 2019. Back then, she tried running as a progressive on the left edge of the party, but now she is positioning herself closer to the middle on many issues. This “etchasketch” approach to her views has led to ambiguity about her actual policy ambitions. With a thin trackrecord of policymaking in the Senate and her subordinate role under Biden, she has never really articulated an overarching economic policy vision.“ Læs hele analysen her.
Goldman Sachs: Partially autonomous cars forecast to comprise 10 pct. of new vehicle sales by 2030. “Industry expectations for autonomous vehicles range from optimism about imminent breakthroughs to pessimism that self-driving cars will ever hit the road on a wide scale. Goldman Sachs Research sees signs that partial automation and assisted driving are becoming more widespread. The ramping-up of fully automated cars is taking longer than previously anticipated, but the segment will continue to grow and in the longer-term be a larger part of the market. The bottom-line is that we believe improved AI technology will help the industry reach higher levels of performance, although we also believe that wide scale AV adoption is still at least a few years away as a base case…” Læs hele analysen her.
Deutsche Bank: European securitisation market – ready for a comeback? A well-functioning securitisation market could help to unlock capital to fund Europe’s economy and its green and digital transition. The bundling of loans into a tradable security can act as a funding tool for European banks and/or allow them to transfer risk to investors. This frees up capital and creates additional capacity to lend to the economy, including the financing of green and digital projects. The European securitisation market has been stagnating since the financial crisis. The crisis ended a boom phase, with true-sale securitisation issuance peaking at EUR 711 bn in 2008. Afterwards, issuance fell drastically and has since remained stable at around EUR 200 bn per year or EUR 100 bn if marketplaced issuance alone is considered. This is much lower than in the US, where average annual issuance was about EUR 2 tr in the period 2013-23. Synthetic securitisation, however, where the underlying assets remain on the bank’s balance sheet, has been growing in recent years, with issuance in the euro area reaching EUR 139 bn in 2023.” Læs hele analysen her.
Morten W. Langer
