JP Morgan: Vil en afmatning i USA’s økonomi påvirke selskabernes overskud negativt? “We do not see reasons to be concerned about the fundamentals of the US equity market. Consensus US earnings forecasts don’t look overly optimistic given our base case of a slower – rather than collapsing – US economy. Investors should remember that the S&P 500 is not the US economy. Nonetheless, markets will remain reactive to incoming data given perceptions of increased recession risk. Investors should therefore check in on their equity allocations to ensure their portfolios are not overly sensitive to potential earnings disappointments, or to volatility in economic expectations. Balance is key. Diversification across sectors and styles, as well as a focus on quality companies, looks prudent given still-high uncertainty about the path ahead.” Læs hele analysen her.
Natixis: The German economy has been broadly stagnating over the last couple of years, with the level of economic activity now only slightly higher than before the pandemic. This is in stark contrast to other euro area countries, where all activity is now significantly higher than in pre pandemic times. The inability of the German economy to reach escape velocity and to return to its solid growth path reflects a combination of cyclical sluggishness in some sectors, less support from the fiscal side and structural changes that are affecting the German economy more than others.The structural headwinds – the rise of China as a direct competitor and as semi-permanent upward shift in energy costs –have made the preexisting weak spots of the economy look more problematic than previously. Factors such as high wage costs and a high tax burden, which seemed acceptable in the pre-pandemic world, appear now more threating to the outlook of the German economy than in the “oldworld”. The continuing weakness of the industrial sector and corporate investment spending poses the risk of a self-reenforcing downward adjustment.” Læs hele analysen her.
ING: Reality check: The 500 billion-dollar AI investment gap. “The Artificial Intelligence (AI) sector is characterized by high-flying ideas and many possible up-and-coming companies. But since it isn’t clear whether those companies will be successful – at best, turning the established corporate landscape upside down, or at worst failing and destroying the capital invested – the AI landscape relies heavily on venture capital. So, it’s no wonder that ears prick up when one of the world’s biggest venture capitalists begins to wonder whether all the investments in AI are justified and if they’ll ever be rewarded with a decent return. Sequoia, ranked number one in all global venture funds by Dealroom, has renewed its analysis from September 2023 on the gap between AI sales expectations and AI actual sales growth, concluding that the 125 billion dollar gap is now set to become a 500 billion dollar gap.” Læs hele analysen her.
ING: Om Ørsteds lukning af e-metanol fabriksprojekt til 1,5 mia. kr. ” Ørsted is widely considered the greenest energy company in the world. The fact that even this company is struggling to make the investment is the clearest possible sign of the complex business case for synthetic fuel. A month earlier, Shell decided to stop the construction of a plant for biodiesel in Rotterdam. However, Shell’s CEO Wael Sawan has been very open about the company’s goal to increase shareholder value and get rid of renewable energy projects which yield low returns. Lessons learnt: So, what to make of this? The road to sustainable fuel is turning out to be bumpier than many had hoped. This is not just true on the production side, but on the demand side, too, as Boeing’s CEO David Calhoun made perfectly clear: “There is no cheap way of decarbonizing aviation”. An important lesson for all involved in the transition to a net-zero economy is that the economic viability of the business case is frequently overlooked. This oversight occurs in many transition strategies, both at the sector and corporate levels. Typically, these plans portray the shift as a seamless and rapid progression towards the years 2040 or 2050. However, the actual journey is proving to be more tumultuous than anticipated. “Læs hele analysen her.
Morten W. Langer
