“Flash PMIs for September painted a gloomy picture of the eurozone recovery, albeit exaggerated by the Paris Olympics distortions. The composite PMI fell a full 2 points to 48.9 from 51 in August. As we had flagged in August, the PMI back then was flattered by a boost from France’s hosting of the Oympics. This effect more than unwound in September, with the French PMI falling particularly sharply, from 53.1 to 47.4. Excluding the impact of this, we estimate the composite eurozone PMI would have fallen a much by a smaller 0.6 points to 49.3. Despite the French distortion, momentum looks genuinely weak. While the weakness in September is clearly exaggerated by the Olympics distortion, there was little to cheer about elsewhere from the reports. German industry has yet to find a bottom, with the manufacturing PMI falling another 2 points to 40.3 – the lowest since last September.” Læs hele analysen her.
Morten W. Langer
