Uddrag fra oilprice.com (frit oversat)
Europa har oplevet negative energipriser flere gange i år, da den hurtige udvikling af sol- og vindenergi overgår regionens evne til at håndtere overskudsproduktionend. Ifølge konsulentfirmaet ICIS faldt elpriserne til negative niveauer i 7.841 timer i de første otte måneder af 2024, nogle gange helt ned til -22 USD pr. megawatt-time. Hovedårsagen har været solenergi, som er præget af inkonsistens i elleverancerne på grund af dens ustabile natur. Selvom implementeringen af storskala batterier kan hjælpe med at tackle denne udfordring, kan det tage flere år, og landene må i mellemtiden håndtere disse prisfald.
Landene i Europa har i de seneste årtier investeret kraftigt i projekter inden for vind- og solenergi, da priserne på disse rene energikilder er faldet i takt med de faldende installationsomkostninger. Omkostningerne ved solcelleanlæg (PV) er faldet med 90 procent i det sidste årti, mens omkostningerne ved havvindmøller er faldet med 70 procent, og batterier med over 90 procent. Dette skyldes i høj grad den kraftige stigning i produktionen af vind- og solenergi i denne periode. Data, der sammenligner den stigende globale produktion med omkostningerne ved vind- og solenergi, viser, at omkostningerne er faldet med cirka 20 procent, hver gang den globale kumulative kapacitet er blevet fordoblet. I løbet af de sidste fire årtier er solenergi gået fra at være en af de dyreste energikilder til en af de billigste.
Men i takt med at landene øger deres kapacitet inden for vedvarende energi, står de over for finansielle udfordringer i overgangen. Sol- og vindenergi er meget volatile; de producerer energi, når solen skinner og vinden blæser, men ikke om natten eller på stille dage. Det betyder, at på dage, hvor vind- og solkraft genererer store mængder elektricitet, kan markedet blive mættet med billig strøm. Dette presser elpriserne ned, nogle gange til negative niveauer. I mellemtiden, under perioder med lav eller ingen produktion, leveres der ingen elektricitet til nettet, som må stole på andre mere stabile energikilder, såsom naturgas.
Dette har dog nogle fordele, da kunderne kan nyde godt af billigere elpriser i områder, hvor forsyningsselskaberne tilbyder off-peak kampagner. Forsyningsselskaberne opfordrer i stigende grad kunderne til at bruge mere energi i højtproduktionsperioder og dermed reducere forbruget i spidsbelastnings- og lavproduktionsperioder. Dette kan gøres ved at tilbyde kunderne billigere elpriser i bestemte tidsrum på dagen, hvilket motiverer dem til at bruge energikrævende apparater eller oplade elbiler, når der er en overflod af ren energi tilgængelig.
Ikke desto mindre præsenterer den uforudsigelighed, der kendetegner mange rene energikilder, en klar udfordring for forsyningsselskaber, der forsøger at levere stabil strøm til forbrugerne. Selvom investeringerne i vind- og solenergi fortsætter med at stige, mens regeringer verden over forfølger en grøn overgang gennem finansielle incitamenter, vælger nogle operatører at pause projekter på grund af usikkerheden omkring energipriserne. Flere producenter i Europa er blevet tvunget til at reducere deres elproduktion eller betale for at afsætte elektricitet på grund af netmætning, hvilket afskrækker dem fra at udvide vind- og solfarmer.
Dette understreger det klare behov for at øge energilagringen i takt med stigningen i kapaciteten inden for vedvarende energi. Den Internationale Energiagentur (IEA) har udtalt, “Udviklere, der vælger ikke at placere deres vind- og solcelleparker sammen med batterilagring eller andre fleksible kilder, kan opleve et fald i potentielle indtægter under spidsproduktion – hvilket hæmmer overskuddet og afskrækker investeringer.”
EU forventer, at energilagringen skal tredobles mellem 2022 og 2030 for at matche prognosen om en 69 procent andel af vedvarende energikilder i elproduktionen ved udgangen af årtiet. Udrulningen af batterilagring kan yderligere understøttes af øget investering i AI-drevne intelligente net og målere for bedre at kunne styre energieffektiviteten for forbrugerne.
IEA’s særlige rapport om batterier og sikre energiovergange angiver, at batterilagring var den hurtigst voksende energiteknologi i 2023, med en mere end fordobling af implementeringen år for år. I alt blev der tilføjet 42 GW batterilagring globalt. Dog matcher hastigheden, hvormed batterilagring rulles ud, ikke væksten i kapaciteten af vedvarende energi verden over, hvilket resulterer i volatile energipriser i lande med en høj andel af grøn energi i nettet.
For at adressere problemet med negative priser på vind- og solenergi må producenterne tage proaktive skridt for at afbøde virkningerne af denne udfordring. Dette kan gøres ved at investere i batterilagring eller ved at samarbejde med forsyningsselskaber for at flytte forbrugere fra faste til variable energikontrakter, så de opfordres til at reducere forbruget i lavproduktionsperioder. Dette bør understøttes af stærkere nationale politikker for batterilagring og vedtagelse af ren teknologi for at styrke elnettene fra regeringer verden over.
Europe has experienced negative energy prices several times this year, as the rapid pace of development of solar and wind energy outpaces the region’s ability to cope with excess supply. Electricity prices dropped into negative figures for 7,841 hours during the first eight months of 2024, sometimes to as much as -$22 per megawatt hour, according to the consultancy ICIS. The main culprit has been the solar sector, driven by inconsistencies in the delivery of electricity due to its unstable nature. While the deployment of utility-scale batteries could help to tackle this challenge, this could take several years and countries will have to deal with these price dips in the meantime.
Countries across Europe have invested heavily in wind and solar energy projects in recent decades as the price of these clean energy sources has decreased in line with the falling costs of installations. The cost of solar photovoltaics (PV) has dropped by 90 percent in the last decade, while the cost of offshore wind has fallen by 70 percent, and batteries by over 90 percent. This is largely thanks to the sharp rise in wind and solar energy production over that time. Data comparing the rising global production versus the cost of wind and solar energy shows that costs have decreased by approximately 20 percent each time the global cumulative capacity doubles. Over the last four decades, solar power has shifted from being one of the most expensive energy sources to one of the cheapest.
However, as countries increase their renewable energy capacity, they face financial challenges in the transition. Solar and wind energy are highly volatile, producing energy when the sun is shining and the wind is blowing, and not during the night or on still days. This means that on days when wind and solar power generate high levels of electricity, the market can become oversaturated with inexpensive power. This drives down the price of electricity greatly, sometimes to negative figures. Meanwhile, during times of low or no production, no electricity is delivered to the grid, leaving it to rely on other more stable energy sources, such as natural gas.
This does have some benefits, as customers can enjoy cheaper energy prices in places where utilities offer off-peak promotions. Utility companies are increasingly encouraging customers to use more energy during high-production hours, and thereby decrease use during peak and low-production hours. This can be done by offering customers cheaper energy prices during certain hours of the day, driving them to use high energy-consuming appliances or charging electric vehicles when there is an abundance of clean energy available.
Nevertheless, the unreliability of many clean energy sources presents a clear challenge to utilities that are trying to deliver stable power to consumers. Although investment in wind and solar energy projects continues to rise, as governments worldwide pursue a green transition through the provision of financial incentives, some operators are pausing projects due to the uncertainty around energy prices. Several producers across Europe have been forced to reduce their electricity output or pay to offload electricity due to grid saturation, which is discouraging them from making new additions to wind and solar farms.
This demonstrates the clear need to increase energy storage in line with the rise in renewable energy capacity. The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated, “Developers who choose not to co-locate their wind and solar PV power parks alongside battery storage or other sources of flexibility may see a drop in potential revenues during peak generation – hampering profits and discouraging investment.”
The EU expects that energy storage will need to increase by more than three times between 2022 and 2030, to match the forecast of a 69 percent renewable energy electricity share by the end of the decade. The rollout of battery storage could be further supported by greater investment in AI-powered smart grids and meters, to better manage energy efficiency for consumers.
The IEA’s Special Report on Batteries and Secure Energy Transitions states that battery storage was thefastest-growingg energy technology in 2023, with deployment more than doubling year on year. A total of 42 GW of battery storage was added globally. However, the rate at which battery storage is being rolled out does not match the growth in renewable energy capacity worldwide, which is resulting in volatile energy prices in countries with a high share of green energy on the grid.
To address the issue of negative wind and solar energy pricing, producers must take proactive measures to mitigate the effects of this challenge. This may be done by investing in battery storage or by working with utilities to move consumers from fixed to variable energy contracts, to encourage them to reduce use during low-production hours. This should be supported by stronger national policies on battery storage and clean tech uptake to strengthen electricity grids from governments worldwide
