“While both parties may potentially increase tariffs, particularly against China, former President Trump has proposed a 60% tariff on imports from China and a 10% tariff on imports from other countries. If implemented, these trade proposals would send US tariffs to their highest levels since the 1930s. The magnitude of these proposals could certainly change, and it is impossible to know how or when any new trade policies would be implemented. However, even if only half of these tariffs are introduced, 70 years of US trade liberalization will be reversed. It is extremely difficult to forecast the impact of such a large policy shift on financial markets, inflation, domestic and global growth, or geopolitics. Hence, it is unlikely that markets are fully pricing in the impact of these proposals. To what extent these tariffs are a negotiation tactic is unclear. It is clear, however, that both Trump and trade officials from his prior administration believe tariffs can reduce the US trade deficit, raise government revenue, and create manufacturing jobs. Additionally, they believe tariffs can be imposed without Congressional approval, including on countries with which the United States has free-trade agreements.” Læs hele analysen her.
Morten W. Langer
