”German real GDP rose 0.2% qoq in the third quarter of 2024 (UniCredit: 0.0%; consensus: -0.1%). The figure in the previous quarter was revised down to -0.3% from -0.1%. On a year-on-year basis, economic activity (adjusted for working days) still shrank 0.2% in 3Q24. Accordingly, private and public consumption contributed to the overall rise in economic activity. • First of all, today’s data show that one should not write off the German economy! While we were surprised by the slight GDP rise in 3Q24 like others, the latest figure supports our idea of a moderate recovery in 2025, driven by internal demand. It goes without saying that some structural headwinds will continue to blow in the face of German companies and households. The lack of public infrastructure investment in the last 10-15 years and problems in some export industries, such as the car sector, are well-known issues. In other words, potential growth in Germany is low, or lower than anticipated. However, this does not mean that there cannot be any cyclical recovery.”
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Morten W. Langer
