“France is currently facing a significant political crisis that threatens the stability of its government and the approval of the 2025 Budget. As negotiations intensify, the far-right opposition, led by Marine Le Pen, has expressed willingness to support a no-confidence vote against the government if certain budgetary demands are not met. This precarious political landscape has heightened concerns about the country’s fiscal outlook, with the likelihood of the public deficit exceeding the previously announced 5% deficit for 2025. The ongoing turmoil suggests that even if immediate government collapse is avoided, the French political environment will likely remain volatile, impacting economic growth and market confidence. All of this assumes that the government will manage to remain in power until the adoption of the 2025 Budget, which seems increasingly uncertain by the day. Today, the highly sensitive Social Security Budget is up for a vote, with the likely prospect of being adopted via Article 49.3 (a constitutional bypass the government can use without the parliament) due to the lack of a clear parliamentary majority.“
Morten W. Langer
