Uddrag fra Market ear:
VDA – dead money
NVDA has perforated the positive trend line that started in December 2023. Today the stock crashed below the 50, 100 and 200 day moving average. This is rare! Sure, we could bounce, but this is not how bullish leaders look like. Hot money looks like dead money to us…
Source: Refinitiv
Not low
DB on NVDA: “So this is a company that has gone from relative earnings obscurity to one of the most profitable in the world inside two years and the largest company in the world as of Friday night. The problem is that the AI industry is embryonic. And it’s almost impossible to know how it will develop or what competition current winners might face even if you fully believe in its potential to drive future productivity. The stratospheric rise of DeepSeek reminds us of this.”
Source: DB
SMH extreme
You know things are extreme when you need to “extend the screen” for the left tail…
Source: @danny_kirsch
Can’t make this up
The crowd got extremely bullish just in time for the biggest plunge in a long time. Chart shows NASDAQ vs AAII bulls.
Source: Refinitiv
Of course
Market topped with shorts giving up. Amazing.
Source: GS
Just in time
Put call ratio (5d ma) puked just in time for the sell off.
Source: DB
Not low in tech
Mega cap and tech positioning is all but low.
Source: DB
Forced to chase
The crowd has been forced into chasing big cap/tech names. The ones that didn’t chase got fired.
Source: Nomura
They hedged…
…but the wrong tail. Net call volume has exploded lately.
Source: DB
Deep protection
Downside protection, Sdex index, surging today. Deepseek disrupting or not, but investors are bidding up downside protection.
Source: Refinitiv
Before you get too bearish…
Not a deep threat
Wedbush on the latest AI turbulence: “No US Global 2000 company will use Chinese start-up DeepSeek for AI infrastructure, as Nvidia remains the dominant player in autonomous systems, robotics, and broader AI applications. While DeepSeek’s LLM model is impressive, it lacks the scale and capacity to compete in AI infrastructure. Despite market fears and events like Fed actions or Nvidia delays, the tech rally, led by giants like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon, will continue. DeepSeek’s advancements, though notable, don’t pose a significant threat to the established tech ecosystem.”
So it starts
The buy back window is opening as of today and will run through 3/14 according to GS.
