Uddrag fra Marketear:
SPX technicals
SPX reversed right on the 21 day moving average. Not overly surprising given the recent squeeze. Support: 5600, resistance: 5850. Maybe we just need to range for a bit…
Source: Refinitiv
NASDAQ technicals
Also reversing right on the 21 day. Support: 19600, resistance: 20800.
Source: Refinitiv
Tech – why so weak?
Main bullets via Goldman’s sales trading desk:
1. NDX failed the 200dma.
2. Continued chop into April 2nd.
3. Negative stories around Datacenter/AI this week (China NVDA environmental concerns, neg Cowen note today, BABA “bubble” comments yesterday).
4. Positioning & trading dynamics into quarter-end.
Source: Refinitiv
That death cross
NVDA well below the 200 day, and that recent death cross (50 over 200 day cross) is not looking great…
Source: Refinitiv
The QQQ puke
US Tech has experienced one of its worst performances on record vs. other sectors. BofA thinks the upside symmetry is underpriced and recommend the April 4, 500/510 call spreads.
Source: BofA
The Q42018 analogy
BofA has so far nailed this analogy. Here they write: “We may be approaching a make-or-break moment for the 4Q18 analog in the S&P and the VIX, a period which bears many similarities to today”.
Source: BofA
Tariff expectations
Expectation of 50% tariffs on China and a tariff of slightly below 10% on everyone else (400 investors asked in DB survey).
Source: DB
Gold loves policy uncertainty
The “ultimate” everything hedge…Full gold note from earlier today here.
Source: BofA
Reawakening of Europe
“…this year so far has been neck and neck with 2015 as the best year for the DAX versus the S&P 500 with nearly 20pp outperformance in local currency terms. In Q1 2015, we had a huge new ECB QE program launched, a falling Euro and lower oil. This time around, the differential would be even more impressive in dollar terms as the Euro has rallied”. (DB)
Source: DB
Huge
SPX-SX5E quarterly return differential (% pts).
Source: JPM
The euro
A pause and another big move higher?
