“Substantial downward revisions to May and June US payrolls data, the subsequent dismissal of the BLS Commissioner, and a large downward revision to the level of employment in the BLS’ annual benchmark review have fueled concerns about US economic data quality. But such concerns aren’t new or unique to the US. So, how concerned should we really be about the quality of global economic data? Former BLS Commissioner Erica Groshen, Laffer Associates’ Arthur Laffer, Harvard’s Alberto Cavallo, and GS’ Joseph Briggs and Ronnie Walker all see some reasons for concern, but Briggs stresses that global economic data mostly remain reliable. Will that remain the case? Groshen and Cavallo worry about the future of US data, partly owing to the Trump Administration’s recent actions, while Laffer argues such actions should help ensure data reliability ahead. We explore what’s at stake if trust in economic data is lost, concluding that the economic costs could be significant, TIPS would be directly impacted, and the Dollar could weaken further.”
Morten W. Langer
