“Europe cleared some critical hurdles this summer as major challenges to the natural-gas market failed to materialise. Given the more-relaxed nearterm outlook, we have revised our TTF price forecasts downward. 1. Worst-case scenarios avoided Europe avoided worst-case scenarios over the spring and summer that could have put meaningful upside pressure on the TTF natural-gas price. Given the improved outlook for winter 2025-26 supply, we are lowering our price forecast for 2025. 2. LNG imports came to the rescue A weakening global economic outlook has tempered demand for LNG and has helped keep prices in check. Although geopolitical tensions also threatened to disrupt trade in the summer, these threats eased quickly. 3. Lower price forecasts Major new LNG capacity expansion is expected to start in 2026 and is scheduled to continue in the coming years, notably in the US and Qatar. We are also lowering our 2026 price forecast given this improving supply outlook in the medium and longer terms.”
Morten W. Langer
