Resume af teksten:
Detailhandlen i eurozonen faldt med 0,1 % i august sammenlignet med juli, hvor tendenserne har været flade siden april. Trods forbedret købekraft holder forbrugerne sig tilbage fra indkøb. Detailhandlen var i bedring indtil første kvartal af året, men en ophedning af handelskonflikter har gjort de europæiske forbrugere mere forsigtige. Forbrugertilliden faldt markant i april, men genvandt delvist efter at handelskrigen ikke eskalerede yderligere. Dog er detaljhandelsvolumen stort set uændret, hvilket indikerer lavt forbrug i tredje kvartal. Trods stærke forudsætninger med lønvækst over inflation, og dermed positiv reel lønvækst, spørges der om forbrugerne vil øge deres forbrug eller fortsat spare op. Ny tillidsundersøgelse viser en stigning i forbrugertilliden med forventning om større indkøb i det kommende år, men et markant forbrugsboom i 3. kvartal er ikke sandsynligt.
Fra ING:
Eurozone retail sales declined by 0.1% in August compared to July. This sales trend has been roughly flat since April. The worried eurozone consumer is seemingly shying away from the shopping street despite improvements in purchasing power across the bloc
Shoppers in Verviers, Belgium
Retail sales had been recovering from mid-2023 until the first quarter of this year. But the heating up of the trade war seems to have coincided with a more cautious European consumer. Indeed, confidence dipped significantly in April but did recover somewhat in the months after when it became clear that the trade war did not escalate. Still, retail trade volumes have remained largely unchanged since then, which suggests that the third quarter is also likely to be a muted one for consumer spending again.
The fundamentals for eurozone household spending do remain strong. Wage growth remains well above inflation at the moment, which means that real wage growth remains positive. We expect this to level off in the coming quarters, but the hit of the inflation shock of 2022 has been recovered.
So the question remains: will consumers dare to spend some of their income gains, or will they mainly save up? The latter has been the answer recently, but there does seem to be some light at the end of the tunnel. Despite being concerned about the general economic situation and more worried about possible increases in unemployment, the latest confidence survey showed a rebound in consumer confidence, indicating that they plan to make a major purchase in the coming year. For 3Q, don’t expect a strong increase in spending yet, though.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
