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Morgan Stanley: The Demographic Barbell

Morten W. Langer

mandag 20. oktober 2025 kl. 9:30

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A generational shift is unfolding across the global economy. At one end, millennials and Gen Z are gaining economic influence with their distinct preferences for technology, sustainability and different consumption patterns. At the other, aging populations, particularly Baby Boomers, are increasing their share of healthcare spending, financial assets and political influence. Dividend or Burden The global population growth rate has slowed to 0.9%, the slowest pace since 1950, with average fertility rates dropping from 5.3 children per woman in the 1960s to just over two today. Currently, roughly half of all countries have fertility rates below their population replacement rates. While fertility rates have plunged, average life expectancy has risen from 46 years in 1950 to 73 today, thanks to improvements in healthcare, nutrition, sanitation and overall living standards. This combination of low fertility levels and high life expectancy has led to a remarkable increase in the global share of people 60 and older. This year, the global elderly population will be double what it was back in 2000 and by 2030, nearly 1 in 6 people globally, about 1.4 billion, will be aged 60 or older. This aging wave will create structural challenges, putting pressure on pension systems and healthcare budgets.”

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