Goldman: Nu kommer korrektionen ned, spørgsmålet er kun, hvor stor den bliver

Goldman Partner Rich Privorotsky muses on the immediate catalysts…

• Perhaps it’s Michael Burry’s latest 13F showing sizable put positions in NVDA and PLTR…
• the breakdown in crypto…
• the fact that U.S. bank reserves have now dipped below $3T…
• the very low breadth and multiple Hindenburg-type signals…
• the surge in repo and a positive SOFR-IORB spread…
• the slide in consumer sentiment and restaurant stocks to 52-week lows…
• the hawkish Fed pivot last week…
• the cracks in ORCL and META…
• the break down in BDCs/private equity stocks/cmbs defaults…
• or maybe it was Amazon up ~5%, adding  +$100bn of market cap on headlines of a new OpenAI–Amazon cloud deal worth around $38bn.

Simply put, Privorotsky says, there are just a lot of things about this market that haven’t been adding up for a while.

PLTR is going to be interesting today… smashed numbers but the stock was down post-market.

US commentary: “Broader retail factor/theme baskets were torched… Global Rare Earths… Quantum Computing… Nuclear… “ For the first time in weeks, long-short quality traded well.

We have been overdue a correction and… the question is the magnitude.

CTA triggers still a distance below the market although vol control has likely turned modest seller.  Given still low nets think most participants would welcome a pullback to set up for a year end rally.

The AI-spend concentration risks are obvious but now the debt market is being asked to fuel the spend and that feels like a change.

Focus also on today’s U.S. state and local races… NYC mayoral dynamics, plus NJ and VA gubernatorial races. 62% of GDP in five stocks while food stamps/benefits get trimmed is fertile ground for protest votes… policy-path risk could start to matter into year-end.