Resume af teksten:
Sydkoreas centralbank forventes at holde renten stabil på 2,50% med fokus på finansielt stabilitet fremfor inflation, trods volatile bolig- og valutamarkeder. Bank of Korea kan justere 2025 og 2026 BNP-prognoser opad grundet stærkere handel og halvledercyklus. Kina forventes at melde fortsat forbedring i industrifortjenester med en stigning på 3,2% år til dato, drevet af eksportefterspørgsel i specifikke sektorer. Tokyos inflation stiger sandsynligvis til 2,7% årligt, understøttet af lønstigninger og en svag yen. Taiwan viser fortsat stærk industriel vækst på 18,1% årligt. Indien forudses at opleve en begrænset vækstafmatning i BNP til 7,5% årligt med faldende eksport, men stabilt privatforbrug.
Fra ING:
The Bank of Korea is expected to hold the rates steady. Meanwhile, data highlights include Chinese industrial profits, Tokyo inflation, Korean and Taiwanese industrial production and Indian GDP
South Korea: BOK to stand pat, while industrial production continues growing
The Bank of Korea will likely keep the policy rate at 2.50% on Thursday for another month, with a minor dissent vote expected. The Bank of Korea is likely to prioritise concerns about financial instability over inflation. Given no clear signs that housing prices have settled and the FX market remains volatile, the BoK has reason to keep rates unchanged. Also Thursday, the BoK releases its outlook report. Amid easing trade tensions and a stronger-than-anticipated semiconductor cycle, we believe the BoK will revise up its 2025 GDP forecast to 1.1% from 0.8% and its 2026 forecast to 1.9% from 1.6%. A GDP outlook below 2% is likely to support the BoK’s continued easing policy stance. The recent hike in KTB yields reflected Governor Rhee’s hawkish remarks – signalling a possible change of policy direction – during an earlier media interview. We think his remarks at press conference should be more balanced and highlight that policy decisions are data-dependent.
Industrial production is forecasted to increase for a second consecutive month, driven by strong chip output. The longer-than-expected Chuseok holiday, combined with the 2nd cash payout program, should boost service activity.
China: Industrial profit data expected to continue improving
China’s industrial profits data, out Thursday, will round out the month’s data releases. The data has been showing signs of improvement in the past few months, with profits so far up 3.2% YoY, year-to-date, through September, thanks to two straight months of YoY profit growth above 20% in August and September. This was boosted by a supportive base effect. Support from this effect should gradually wane in the 4Q data, but be enough to keep profit growth solidly positive in October. The industries that have been seeing strong export demand such as rail, ships, and aerospace, computers, communication, other electronic equipment manufacturing, and electrical machinery & equipment manufacturing have generally been outperformers so far this year. This trend should continue.
Japan: Tokyo CPI inflation supported by solid wage gains
Tokyo’s consumer price index inflation is expected to rise 2.7% YoY in November, supported by solid wage gains. The weaker JPY probably added upward pressure. Industrial production will likely remain positive following Japan’s trade agreement with the US. Despite a contraction in the third quarter, recent data suggest an economic recovery, supporting the Bank of Japan’s continued policy normalisation. Market expectations for a December rate hike have fallen sharply over the week. We believe that recent BoJ comments indicate at least three board members support a more hawkish stance. However, it remains unclear if others will agree. We continue to forecast a rate hike in December, though the likelihood of a delay to January is rising.
Taiwan: Industrial production expected to accelerate slightly
We expect Taiwan’s industrial production data, out Tuesday, to continue its streak of strong growth, accelerating slightly to 18.1% YoY. Strength has been quite heavily concentrated in the Information & Electronic Industries and remains vulnerable to a downturn if demand in this sector slows. While market debate on this possibility has increased recently, we do not yet see it affecting the October data.
India: Q3 GDP growth expected to slow modestly
We expect India’s GDP growth in the third quarter to slow down modestly to 7.5% YoY. Export growth began to slow in 3Q due to the impact of 50% tariffs on US exports. But private consumption growth remained relatively strong, driven by GST rate cuts and the consequent boost in consumer goods purchases.
Key events in Asia next week
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
