Resume af teksten:
Arbejdsløsheden stiger til 4,6% i november, efter et fald i beskæftigelsen på 105.000 i oktober, men en stigning på 64.000 i november. Dette kan delvist tilskrives fejlagtig rapportering under regeringsnedlukningen. Regeringen mistede også grundlæggende medarbejdere, med 162.000 føderale jobtab i oktober og yderligere 6.000 i november. Byggeri og sundhedspleje bidrog positivt til beskæftigelsen, mens fremstillingssektoren er på et lavpunkt siden marts 2022. Lønvæksten er moderat, hvilket kan give Fed større handlefrihed i deres arbejdsmarkedspolitik. Datastøj på grund af nedlukningen og forventede store revisioner gør det svært at vurdere langsigtede tendenser. Forventningen er en pause i rentesænkninger i januar, men en gradvis lempelse kan være på vej senere på året.
Fra ABN-Amro:
After a long drought of data, the labour market report hit hard. October payrolls fell by 105k, while November payrolls increased by 64k. Combined with a small rise in the participation rate, this led to the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, from a high 4.4% in September. Part of this might be due to misreporting from furloughed workers during the government shutdown, which would be temporary.
Rogier Quaedvlieg
Senior Economist United States
Still, the government also fundamentally lost workers. As suggested in our week ahead preview, October saw large DOGE cuts, at 162k federal job losses, while November saw an additional 6k. November data shows that hiring was supported by construction and health care services. Manufacturing payrolls are at their lowest level since March 2022, in contrast to the stated goals of the Trump administration’s industrial policy.
Overall, the new data suggests a continuously weakening labour market. While the uptick in participation rate is a positive sign, the contraction in hiring and slowing of hourly earnings growth point to weakness. Real earnings growth is only moderately positive. This is bad news in terms of affordability, but good news in terms of second round inflation effects, which might provide the Fed with some more leeway to focus on the labour market side of the mandate.
We should note that all of this data is even more noisy than usual. Data collection was impacted by the government shutdown and large revisions are likely. Still, data continues to evolve in line with further rate cuts over the course of next year. We still expect a pause in January but expect moderate headline inflation and a continuously weakening labour market to tilt the balance towards another 75bps of gradual easing over the course of the year.
Rogier Quaedvlieg
Senior Economist United States
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.