Resume af teksten:
Mens der ikke forventes mange økonomiske begivenheder i de kommende uger, præsenterer James Smith en liste med “festlige” læsninger til tiden efter jul. Listen byder på alt fra en global 2026-udsigt til spændende valutaprognoer, rentesnak, og indsigter i forbrug og økonomiske temaer i Asien. Han antyder desuden, at man kan udforske aktuelle emner som Europæisk Centralbanks pausering, Bank of Englands beslutninger, og en historisk renteforhøjelse fra Bank of Japan. I USA reflekterer økonomer over den interessante tredje kvartals BNP-rapport, især i lyset af de seneste rentenedsættelser fra Federal Reserve på trods af høj inflation og stærke aktiemarkeder. I Centraleuropa viser Tjekkiet tegn på fortsat forbruger- og erhvervstillidsvækst, selvom lave energipriser forventes at støtte optimisme blandt forbrugere og virksomheder.
Fra ING:
Not much is happening in the world of economics over the next two weeks, so for the final THINK Ahead of 2025, James Smith serves up his 10 “festive” reads to aid your holiday detox…
When the tree’s still twinkling but the festivities have faded… check out our post-Christmas THINK reading list
The “festive” reading list
Let’s be honest: at some point between Christmas and New Year – once the excitement of the big day has faded – you’re going to need something to do. I’m thinking post-27 December.
The food’s been demolished. The small talk with the distant relative has dried up. The grandparents are snoring on the sofa. And you’ve already watched all the festive films – by which I mean, Die Hard 1 and 2 (yes, they are Christmas films, and yes, this is the hill I will die on…)
So how are you going to occupy yourself? We’ve got you covered. Here’s your thoroughly, *ahem*, light-hearted and not-at-all festive reading list for that post-Christmas detox period, when time has no meaning and chocolate boxes become a legitimate breakfast item…
1. The 2026 Global Outlook
I concede that after days of festive feasting, a food-themed outlook may not be top of your menu. But don’t let that put you off; it’s packed full of easily-digestible calls – some more outrageous than others – for the year ahead. Read here .
2. The 2026 FX Outlook
Our currency gurus explain why the dollar has further to weaken in the new year. Read here .
3. The 2026 Rates Outlook
Come for the cute picture of a dog on the front cover, stay for the chat about all things bonds and market rates in 2026. Read here .
4. The 2026 Commodities Outlook
We know what gold has done this year, but what about frankincense and myrrh? Sadly, our commodities team refuses to cover them (we’ve asked). So how about some natural gas and soybeans instead? All the details are in their 2026 outlook, available here .
5. The 2026 Consumer Outlook
Find out how much you’re allowed to spend in the January sales. Read here .
6. The 2026 Asia Outlook
A stocking full of questions – and thankfully, lots of great answers – on the big themes shaping Asia’s economic outlook in 2026. Read here .
And if you’re still hungry for more, why not feast on our latest takes on the ECB’s pause , a dramatic Bank of England decision , a historic Bank of Japan rate hike – or some dubious US inflation figures .
And that’s a wrap for this year. Thanks for reading. From all of us at ING Research, we wish you a restful festive break, and we’ll see you in 2026.
THINK Ahead in developed markets
United States (James Knightley)
While not particularly market-moving, given the delays caused by the US government shutdown in October, the third-quarter GDP report will be very interesting. A second consecutive 3%+ growth print will leave many people questioning why the Federal Reserve cut interest rates three times in 2025, especially with inflation up at 3% versus the 2% target, unemployment remaining low and equity markets at all-time highs.
The Fed continues to argue that the cuts are being implemented from a risk management perspective. Monetary policy is still slightly restrictive, and with tariffs not being as impactful on inflation as feared and the jobs outlook looking more worrisome, moving the Fed Funds target rate range closer to 3% makes sense.
In terms of the GDP report itself, the details will likely show that tech investment is a key driver of growth, while consumer spending was held up by high-income households. Fourth quarter GDP growth is set to come in much closer to 1%, though in large part due to the disruption caused by the government shutdown.
THINK Ahead in Central and Eastern Europe
Czech Republic (David Havrlant)
Consumer confidence likely marginally corrected to the downside in December, after recording the three strongest gains in a row since April last year. That said, given the solid financial position of Czech households and the envisaged reduction in energy prices in January, we see enough reasons for confidence to remain upbeat.
Business confidence likely recorded a marginal gain in the same month, confirming its gradual upward trend. As the new government is about to lower electricity prices for businesses, we again see space for the business mood to improve further. We’re likely to also see this in a marginal pickup in December’s PMI.
Key events in developed markets
Source: Refinitiv, ING
Key events in Central and Eastern Europe
Source: Refinitiv, ING
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