Fra Danske Bank:
Story of the week (Macro). We believe Trump’s renewed threat of higher tariffs against eight European economies should be seen primarily as a risk to EU’s export competitiveness, rather than a new ‘Liberation Day’ for the US growth and inflation outlook. The average trade-weighted tariff rate on all US imports is hovering around 17% when assuming fixed import volumes (pre-substitution). When calculating with realized tariff payments and import values (post-substitution), the rate drops to 13.5%. The threatened 10%-point increase would lift the pre-substitution rate by only 1%-point. We would expect such an increase to lift consumer prices by no more than 0.1% and to have a negligible impact on growth. We do not think the announcement significantly changes the outlook for the Fed, which we still expect to cut rates twice this year, in March and June.
FX. EUR/USD has rebounded following renewed US tariff threats, which we ultimately view as USD-negative. We initiated a long EUR/USD spot position last week.
STIR. 2Y rates rose on Friday in conjunction with a sharp decline in the odds of Kevin Hassett becoming the next Fed chair. The Fed chair nomination looks to drag out and could continue to be a near-term marker mover.
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
