Resume af teksten:
Italiens BNP-vækst accelererede i fjerde kvartal, drevet af stærk indenlandsk efterspørgsel. Ifølge en ny Istat-estimat udgjorde den kvartalsvise vækst 0,3%, hvilket overgår forventningerne og styrker den årlige vækst til 0,8%. Væksten blev understøttet af indenlandsk efterspørgsel, mens nettoeksporten bidrog negativt. På udbudssiden steg værdiskabelsen i alle større sektorer, mest bemærkelsesværdigt inden for landbrug og industri. Selvom husholdningernes forbrug kun voksede beskedent, kan investeringer have været stærkere end forventet, muligvis takket være byggeprojekter og fremstilling. Disse resultater tyder på, at den nuværende prognose for en gennemsnitlig BNP-vækst på 0,8% i 2026 kan være konservativ. Den fulde økonomiske oversigt offentliggøres 4. marts.
Fra ING:
As expected, domestic demand was at the heart of the acceleration in Italian GDP growth in the fourth quarter. The slight positive surprise adds upside risks to our current forecast of 0.8% average GDP growth in 2026
The pick-up in Italian GDP growth was largely driven by strong domestic demand in last year’s final quarter
Business and consumer confidence data, along with recent readings on industrial production and the labour market through the final months of 2025, had already pointed to a possible modest acceleration in Italian GDP growth.
Today’s preliminary GDP estimate for the fourth quarter, released by Istat, confirms this picture. It shows quarterly growth of 0.3% (up from +0.1% in the third quarter), slightly above expectations. In year‑on‑year terms, growth strengthened from 0.6% to 0.8%. As is typical at the preliminary stage, the Istat release does not provide a breakdown of demand components. It only notes that growth was supported by domestic demand excluding inventories, while net exports made a negative contribution. On the supply side, value added increased across all major sectors, with a more pronounced rise in agriculture and industry.
Today’s figure is only partially surprising. We had anticipated a rebound in domestic demand, helped in part by a positive turnaround in inventories, after their particularly negative contribution in the third quarter. While we still believe household consumption likely grew only modestly in Q4, investment may have been somewhat stronger than expected – supported not only by infrastructure‑related construction but also by machinery and equipment, possibly reflecting early signs of a cyclical recovery in manufacturing. The full picture will become available on 4 March, when the detailed quarterly national accounts are published.
Overall, today’s data is encouraging. The 2025 outturn leaves a carry‑over of 0.3% into 2026. Given our current projected growth profile, our forecast for average Italian GDP growth of 0.8% in 2026 may in fact prove too conservative.
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