“We raise our Dec2026 gold price forecast to $5,400/toz (vs. $4,900 prior) because the key upside risk we have flagged–private sector diversification into gold–has started to realize. We assume private sector diversification buyers, whose purchases hedge global policy risks and have driven the upside surprise to our price forecast, don’t liquidate their gold holdings in 2026, effectively lifting the starting point of our price forecast. Central bank buying drove solid gold price increases in 2023 and 2024. However, the rally has accelerated since 2025 because central banks started competing for limited bullion with private sector investors via traditional ETF purchases (pulled in by Fed cuts), and growing/newer instruments to hedge global macro policy risks (sometimes associated with the debasement theme), namely physical buying by high net worth families and investor call option buying. Our forecasted 17% price increase from the January month-to-date average (or 13% from spot) by end-2026 reflects:”
Morten W. Langer
