Resume af teksten:
Foråret nærmer sig, og “grønne skud” i verdensøkonomien begynder at vise sig, mens USA’s jobmarked ser lysere ud med stigende privat jobvækst. Arbejdsløsheden falder, mens markederne forventer rentenedsættelser fra Fed senere i år. Alligevel kan det hele være midlertidigt, da den største jobvækst ses inden for sundhed og gæstfrihed.
I Europa viser Tyskland optimistiske tegn med øget forsvarsudgifter og stigende ordrer, hvilket kan stimulere væksten. Storbritannien oplever en mulig nedgang i inflationen, hvilket kunne føre til yderligere rentenedsættelser fra Bank of England. De jobmæssige udsigter ser dog stadig udfordrende ud, og politiske usikkerheder kan påvirke markederne.
I Central- og Østeuropa kæmper Polen med faldende industrioutput og lav efterspørgsel, mens lønningerne er stagnerende. Den samlede økonomiske situation er blandet med små glimt af optimisme midt i vedvarende strukturelle udfordringer.
Fra ING:
Spring may be approaching (even if the cold weather outside says otherwise). ‘Green shoots’ are once again poking through in the global economy. But which ones will flourish and which will turn to weeds? James Smith sorts optimism from overgrowth in the US jobs market, Germany, and even rainy Britain – all in your guide to the week ahead
Crocuses flowering in Berkshire bring a welcome sign that spring is on the way
Sorting the green shoots from the weeds
In case it had escaped your notice, we economists love a good cliché. True aficionados will tell you every cliché has its season: hot inflation summers, dark economic winters, and the ever-reliable sports metaphors. I’ll spare you the comparison between US GDP and the luge doubles at the Winter Olympics (who came up with that, by the way?)
So it was a great delight to see the absolute classic-of-the-genre “green shoots” metaphor spring up in US commentary again this week. A little early, sure, but you know, global warming and all that…
True, an economy growing at 3-4% hardly screams “fragile seedlings”. But the argument goes that this is now finally spilling into the long-embattled jobs market. Cue those other cliché bingo terms: “turning a corner”, “underlying momentum” and dare we even say, “robust fundamentals”?
Private payrolls growth surged last month. The six-month moving average of jobs growth is picking up, hinting that the worst of the hiring drought is behind us. The unemployment rate is down – red meat for the hawks that argue lower immigration is the driving force of the labour market right now.
Markets responded by pushing the next Fed cut back to July, and with inflation running a little hotter in January, expect more people to ask whether cuts are needed at all. “Soft landing” and all that…
We don’t really buy it. I pointed out last week that nearly all the jobs in 2025 were created by private healthcare. Virtually all other sectors shed workers. That dispersion has only become more extreme after the latest revisions.
Healthcare and hospitality accounted for all the jobs growth in 2025
Source: Macrobond, ING
Sure, that light pink “other” bar has become a little less negative. But it’s partly thanks to a construction worker boom in January, which probably has more to do with unseasonably warm weather than new “tailwinds”. Remember: job openings are falling, layoff announcements are trending up, and consumers are still downbeat about their job prospects.
None of this means the US can’t continue growing above-trend for now, dominated by AI capex and wealth effects. But we’re sticking to our call for two Fed cuts this year – in June and September.
In Europe, there does appear to be genuine signs of metaphorical spring. Germany’s fiscal story has been a rollercoaster; optimism 12 months ago quickly gave way to pessimism as it became clear that infrastructure doesn’t get built overnight. Add in a hint of creative accounting to the budget, and it looked like more brown leaves than green shoots.
That seems to be changing. Defence spending, though below the government’s target last year, came in some EUR10bn above 2024 levels – and more so if you include borrowing in the special funds. Much of that gap opened up very late in the year, shortly before the German parliament finally approved the budget for 2026 – an announcement that coincided with the approval of a raft of new defence contracts.
The real surprise, though, is that more of this defence spending is going to get spent locally; production capacity is ramping up quickly, it seems. Carsten Brzeski is getting more optimistic about the multiplier effect of defence spending – economist-speak for “this might actually do something to growth.”
New orders are rising rapidly. Next week’s purchasing managers indices (PMIs) should give us a better steer. The hope is that production will increasingly follow as we move through the year – and particularly in 2027. Carsten’s 1.9% growth forecast for next year is above consensus.
None of that subtracts from the multitude of structural challenges Germany faces. But for now, it does seem the green shoots are genuine.
Britain, rain-sodden as ever, also shows flickers of optimism. Not on growth, which rounded out 2025 weaker than expected. Nor politics, which is a major banana skin for markets. But on inflation, there’s a growing sense that the Bank of England could go further with its cutting cycle than previously thought. That’s the message from various investors I’ve seen in London this week.
We agree that inflation is set to drop dramatically over the next few months, even if the January data is unlikely to drastically change next week. The jobs market has cooled a lot and hiring surveys are still getting worse. Private sector wage growth is falling like a stone.
But the Bank itself is cautious, albeit divided. Staunch resistance from the hawks is the main reason we’re reluctant to pencil more than two rate cuts in for this year, even if there’s a decent economic case to be made for more.
So yes, the green shoots are there if you want to find them. And if they turn out to be weeds, fear not – economists are always ready with the next seasonal metaphor. Easter bunny, prepare for battle…
THINK Ahead in developed markets
United States (James Knightley)
Labour Market : Financial markets continue to favour two 25bp Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year and we agree. While the jobs numbers look OK the details are more concerning, showing zero employment growth in three years outside of government, leisure & hospitality and private education & healthcare services.
PCE (Fri): The weekly ADP numbers this coming week will tell a similar story with a clear slowdown in hiring shown in the data. Durable goods orders will be depressed by a swing downwards in Boeing aircraft orders, while the trade balance will see more elevated deficits as the pre-tariff inventory build is exhausted. The key data point will likely be the Fed’s favoured measure of inflation – the core PCE deflator – which we expect to post a 0.3% increase, limiting any further near-term momentum behind the Fed being more aggressive on policy easing.
Eurozone (Bert Colijn)
Industrial production (Mon): The eurozone has seen a cautious increase in industrial production in the autumn of last year and December is likely to pour some cold water on imminent rebound hopes. Germany and Italy saw a tick down in production, making an overall increase less likely. Mind you, optimism is returning to manufacturing due to improving domestic demand, and we do expect a more sustained increase in 2026.
PMI (Fri): The January sentiment data by the European Commission was very upbeat. Across countries and across sectors, a jump was noted. This leaves us intrigued for February survey data. The PMI had not been exuberant in January, although still reflecting decent output growth. A sign of acceleration here may give more weight to the rosy EC survey of last month.
United Kingdom (James Smith)
Inflation (Wed): Headline inflation is set to dip back on airfare noise, lower food price pressure and the fading of last year’s private school tax hike. But we aren’t expecting any drastic changes in “core services” inflation, the Bank of England’s main preoccupation. The bigger fall in inflation will come in April, when we expect headline CPI to dip back to 1.8%.
Jobs report (Tue): Expect further signs of cooling in the UK jobs market and a further drop in annual wage growth. Assuming those trends continue into the next round of data in March, we expect a rate cut at next month’s Bank of England meeting.
THINK Ahead in Central and Eastern Europe
Poland (Adam Antoniak)
Industrial output (Thu): December’s industrial production reading was well above market expectations, but this performance is unlikely to be repeated in January. External demand remains lacklustre, the calendar effect is negative (with one fewer working day compared with January 2025), and weather conditions were harsh. Average temperatures in January 2026 were below the multi‑year average, with severe frosts particularly in the eastern part of the country, which could potentially disrupt transport and cause delays to delivery times, with adverse consequences for production plans. Producers’ prices continue to decline, and deflation in PPI persists as manufacturers face competition from cheap imported goods from China.
Labour market (Thu): Wage growth in enterprises surprised to the upside in late 2025, but the stronger figures were largely attributable to annual bonus payments in certain sectors, predominantly mining. We believe that the downward trend in wage dynamics resumed in January and is likely to continue over the coming months. The minimum wage was increased by 3% at the start of 2026, compared with a 9.2% rise in 2025.
As for employment, we forecast a 0.6% YoY decline. Employment levels in enterprises fell throughout 2025, so we expect a negative statistical effect from the update of the statistical sample (the data cover businesses employing 10 or more people). However, its magnitude should be similar to that observed in January 2025. An insufficient supply of labour remains a key challenge for enterprises in several sectors of the economy.
Key events in developed markets next week
Source: Refinitiv, ING
Key events in EMEA next week
Source: Refinitiv, ING
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
