Resume af teksten:
Metalspriser er steget kraftigt både sidste år og i starten af 2026, især på grund af øget investorinteresse for fysiske aktiver, ifølge Daan Struyven fra global commodities research. Interessant nok kan metaller som guld og kobber have større gavn end energiråvarer fra denne tendens. Mens energipriser kan motivere øget produktion, som i skifergas, er udbuddet af ædelmetaller mere begrænset. Guldproduktionen er for det meste stabil, og den eksisterende guldmasse overstiger langt årlig minedrift. Struyven mener, at metalspriser kan forblive høje længere, også uden fuld støtte fra de fysiske markeder. Samtidig ser Lina Thomas fra samme analysegruppe potentiale i guldprisens stigning til $5,400 i år, drevet af centralbankers køb og forventede rentenedsættelser fra Federal Reserve. For nickel er Indonesiens politik afgørende, da deres minedrift udgør en stor del af verdens forsyning. Tidligere annoncerede produktionsnedskæringer fra Indonesien har allerede påvirket markedet markant.
Fra Goldman Sachs:
Metals prices rallied last year, and most have had a strong start in 2026, too. As geopolitical uncertainty increases, there are signs of growing investor demand for physical assets, according to Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research. “Hard assets are tangible, physical items that have intrinsic value, including commodities, real estate, infrastructure, and equipment, and tend to hold value over time, especially during inflation or economic uncertainty,” Struyven writes in a research report. That said, metals may gain more from the shift to hard assets than energy commodities. In part, this is because metals markets are relatively small, particularly in comparison with the bonds and equities that dominate investor portfolios. Open interest in the global copper market is around 135 times smaller than the amount of outstanding privately owned US Treasuries.
And while higher energy prices tend to incentivize shale oil and gas producers to increase their output, the supply of precious metals and copper is constrained. Gold mine production is stable and largely unresponsive to price. In addition, nearly all the gold that’s ever been mined still exists, and this above-ground stock dwarfs annual mine production. For copper, it takes around 17 years from mine discovery for production to begin.
Finally, metals are easy to store, making them less vulnerable to storage capacity limits than energy and agriculture commodities. “Our analysis suggests that the investor rotation in hard assets can keep several metals prices high for longer, including above what physical fundamentals justify, which we think is the case right now for copper,” Struyven writes. Read the full report from Goldman Sachs Research.
Why Gold Could Keep Rising
Lina Thomas on The Markets
Gold is primed for further gains in 2026, predicts Lina Thomas, senior commodities analyst in Goldman Sachs Research. Her forecast that the gold price will reach $5,400 by the end of the year (from $4,878 as of February 17) is based on two factors. The first is continued purchases by central banks as they continue to diversify their reserves by buying bullion. The second is investor allocations into gold thanks to the Federal Reserve rate cuts that Goldman Sachs Research expects to see this year. (Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost for holding non-yielding assets, which can make investors more willing to hold gold.) Thomas adds on an episode of The Markets podcast that she also sees “significant upside” to that forecast, since it doesn’t account for further diversification flows into gold from private investors. Given the small size of the gold market in comparison to the bond and equity markets, “that source of demand can really feed a lot of upside risk to our gold forecast,” she says. However, investors should also be aware of the volatility that can result from these flows. “A lot of diversification is expressed through call options,” Thomas says. “And that creates sharper price action as, we’ve been seeing.” So while Thomas says that gold is likely to continue to rise, she adds that “we’ll probably see more volatility going forward.”
How Indonesia Drove a Rally in Nickel
Nickel, which is used to make stainless steel and is an ingredient in electric vehicle batteries, climbed sharply in recent months. The metal jumped more than 30% between mid-December and January. Lavinia Forcellese, a commodities analyst with Goldman Sachs Research, expects prices to remain supported in the near-term. On February 3, the team raised their 2026 forecast for nickel prices by 16%, to an average $17,200 per tonne. The metal traded at $17,040 on February 16. The key reason: Indonesian policies restricting how much ore can be mined. With Indonesia now accounting for over 60% of global nickel mine supply, relatively small changes in policy or approvals can have an outsized impact on global balances and prices.
In December, Indonesian officials announced plans to cut production. The market reacted quickly to signals of tighter supply. “Indonesia’s supply decisions are the lever the market is watching,” Forcellese says. “The late December-to-January rally highlighted how central Indonesia is to the market.” Read the full article . Find more of our insights on global markets .
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