Resume af teksten:
Bekymringen over AI’s indvirkning på arbejdsmarkedet er stigende, men data peger ikke på massiv jobtab på nuværende tidspunkt. En analyse af jobopslag i sektorer, der er mest udsatte for AI, viser ingen markant nedgang i ledige stillinger. Selvom sektorer som software og kundeservice er højt rangeret for AI-indflydelse, har jobvækst fortsat hovedsageligt i traditionelle sektorer som privat sundhedspleje. AI’s rolle i arbejdsmarkedet kan vokse, men de nuværende faktorer, der påvirker beskæftigelse, er mest traditionelle. Arbejdsløsheden blandt unge er stigende, men skyldes primært lavere ansættelsesvilje og økonomiske faktorer. I lyset af disse forhold, forbliver ændringer i jobmarkedet en fremtidig bekymring snarere end en aktuel realitet.
Fra ING:
Who better to ask whether AI is killing the jobs market than our robot overlords themselves? In a week when AI doom-mongering has dominated headlines, the answer may surprise you. James Smith weighs up the evidence and explains why, for now at least, the drivers of employment look more traditional. All that, plus our guide to a data-fuelled week ahead
AI predicts it will take your job. The data, for now, disagrees
AI on whether it’s taking your job
Is AI already killing jobs? It’s clearly a big question in financial markets right now. So who better to ask than our AI overlords themselves?
Here’s what I did: I took vacancy data from hiring agency Indeed, covering roughly 50 different sectors. Then I asked my trusty AI assistant/manager/grim reaper (delete as appropriate) to score them between one and 10 depending on how exposed the sector is to AI job losses.
It did a reasonable job at identifying its victims. Unsurprisingly, software was an 8/10. IT design/documentation was a nine, though surprisingly so was driving (can you tell AI lives in California?). Customer service is a solid 10/10. AI has clearly never had the pleasure of using the automated phone line of its utilities provider…
Still, it gives us something to play with. But when I then mapped these against the change in vacancies since the start of 2024, there couldn’t be less of a relationship. That’s true whether you look at the US, UK, France and largely Germany too (though squint carefully and there are hints of a trend line). And before you accuse me of cherry-picking the wrong time window, the results are basically the same whatever horizon you pick.
No obvious sign that AI-exposed sectors have seen vacancies drop faster
“AI exposure” based on asking an AI chatbot to rank each sector from one (not exposed to AI at all) to 10 (extremely exposed to AI job losses). Don’t take the results too literally…
Source: Macrobond/Indeed, ING
Obviously, this is a bit of simplistic Friday fun and definitely shouldn’t be used to justify a sell-off in the US stock market, unlike *ahem* certain other articles this week.
But it chimes with what the data is telling us more broadly. The Indeed data also shows a surprise spike in UK and US software vacancies over the past year, a time when broader job openings fell. Data from Challenger, a company that tracks job cut announcements, reckons that fewer than one in 10 layoffs since last April were down to AI. And even then, I wonder whether this is a convenient scapegoat masking more conventional motivations for reducing staff.
Strikingly, data monitored by the St Louis Fed shows that just 12% of American workers were using GenAI on a daily basis in their job, as of November, barely higher than a year earlier.
OK, so what about rising youth unemployment? US 18-24 joblessness is up more than a percentage point since early 2024 – and by three if you ignore a suspiciously large drop in January. It has reached new highs in the UK, too.
Tempting as it is to blame this on an AI-induced hiring drought among graduates, there is a simpler explanation. In both the US and Britain, the appetite to hire has fallen dramatically, even if there’s not much desire to fire, either. That is true across the vast majority of sectors. And in that environment, young people are always going to be disproportionately affected. That’s why the unemployment rate for those age groups tends to swing more wildly – up and down – than the national average.
Compounding those challenges in the UK, last year’s payroll tax and minimum wage hikes hit consumer services particularly hard – and those sectors tend to be more heavily represented by younger workers.
Wanted: Software engineers
Source: Macrobond, ING
The simple message here is that the drivers of the jobs market right now are more traditional. And when it comes to next week’s US data, the key question is whether January’s surge in jobs was a genuine turnaround or simply a blip.
Construction made up a fair chunk of January’s employment gains, which potentially speaks more to warm weather. And the rest was almost entirely made up of private healthcare services, a sector that represents 15% of jobs but accounted for virtually all the job gains last year. The story remains heavily concentrated.
Still, our view is that it would take quite a lot to get the Fed thinking about an imminent rate cut. We don’t expect another move until June.
Even Christopher Waller, the Fed Governor who until recently was in the running for Chair and who voted for a cut in January, seems to be becoming more hawkish . Officials are also increasingly focused on the sharp drop in net migration and whether that will retighten the jobs market. That’s why they often claim to watch the unemployment rate more than the monthly rate of payroll growth these days.
All of this matters in a week when AI doom mongering has reached fever pitch. Yes, it may well revolutionise the jobs market over time. But it doesn’t appear to be yet. So for now, predictions of future change are just that: predictions.
And hey, even if those predictions are correct, then at least this article has told you which sectors to turn towards. As for me, time to book onto that nail beautician course…
James Smith
THINK Ahead in developed markets
United States (James Knightley)
ISM Manufacturing/Services (Mon/Wed): The ISM reports were both very robust in January, but the regional Federal Reserve surveys have painted a slightly softer picture for the economy in February, and we expect that to be reflected in the ISMs. Oil prices have been on the rise of late, as the risk premium has increased amid escalating Iran-US tensions, so the prices paid components are likely to remain elevated.
Jobs report (Fri): We believe the underlying story is that the economy is adding around 50,000 jobs per month, but that private education & healthcare services continue to be the main source of employment – accounting for around 70% of all the jobs added over the past three years. The lack of breadth of job creation is a concern, and we expect the unemployment rate to tick back up to 4.4% after the surprise drop last month. None of this will be enough to trigger imminent Fed rate cuts, with the next move unlikely before June, in our view.
Eurozone (Bert Colijn)
Feb Inflation (Tue): Inflation dropped to 1.7% in January, which was in line with expectations due to energy price base effects. Essentially, this was not much of a surprise as inflation is widely expected to remain just under 2% for most of 2026. Core inflation at 2.2% is now also more in line with the target as well, leaving the European Central Bank in a ‘good place’ for now. Don’t expect much change in February, although higher energy prices could push up headline inflation.
Jan Unemployment (Wed): With concerns about the impact of AI on the job market, it’s good to keep looking at the hard facts. So far, the eurozone unemployment rate continues to hover around all-time lows despite vacancy rates normalising somewhat. Don’t expect much to change in the January reading.
THINK Ahead in Central and Eastern Europe
Poland (Adam Antoniak)
4Q25 GDP (Mon): The details are unlikely to bring any major surprises as annual figures allow us to approximate the structure of fourth quarter growth. We expect the estimate to be confirmed at 4.0% year-on-year, with private consumption expanding by around 4.0% YoY and fixed investment up by some 4.2% YoY. The end of 2025 was positive for the economy, but the beginning of 2026 probably brought some cooling amid harsh weather conditions. We still see 2026 GDP growth at 3.7% vs. 3.6% estimated for 2025.
NBP decision (Wed): The National Bank of Poland (NBP) is broadly expected to resume monetary easing in March and a 25bp rate cut is likely a done deal after a well-communicated pause in the first two months of 2025. Headline inflation moderated further (to 2.2% YoY in January) and the March NBP staff projection should indicate low inflation in 2026 and 2027 as well. We expect that by the end of the year, the main policy rate may go down to 3.25% from 4.00% currently.
Hungary (Peter Virovacz)
GDP (Tue): The Statistical Office will reveal the reasons behind the sluggish GDP growth in the fourth quarter. We expect consumption to remain the main driver of growth, while investment activity should act as a drag. Net exports were probably a negative contributor to the growth rate of the economy. In terms of production, the services sector was probably the only bright spot, with the construction sector providing a minor positive contribution. Agriculture’s contribution was around zero, while the manufacturing sector continued to hinder growth. If our predictions are correct, the structural problems of the Hungarian economy remain unchanged. The country lacks external demand, creating a doom loop for investments. While consumption has held up, it continues to underperform despite the strength of the labour market, reflecting weak consumer confidence.
Retail/Industry (Thu/Fri): The first set of hard data on the real economy will be released next week. It will show a rather sluggish start to the year. While retail sales will probably show moderate monthly growth, the year-on-year figure should show a marked slowdown due to base effects. With fewer working days in January this year, industrial production is set to plummet on a yearly basis. The month-on-month drop reflects the fact that some car manufacturers and battery plants have reduced shifts and therefore production levels at the start of 2026.
Turkey (Muhammet Mercan)
4Q25 GDP (Mon): We expect growth at 3.9%, translating into 3.8% growth for the entire 2025. This implies continuing resilience in GDP amid domestic demand–driven growth, though some loss of momentum is likely on a quarterly basis. Inflation, on the other hand, should remain high in February, as warned by the central bank, with upward pressure from food prices ahead of Ramadan. We see the monthly figure at 2.9%, with annual inflation inching up to 31.4% from 30.7% a month ago. A more negative surprise would lead the Bank to be more cautious and hence possibly pause at the March MPC meeting, in our view.
Kazakhstan (Dmitry Dolgin)
National Bank of Kazakhstan (Fri): We expect the NBK to keep the base rate unchanged at 18.00% on 6 March, in line with the earlier guidance to hold the rate steady in the first half of 2026. Recent data has tilted slightly to the dovish side: CPI growth slowed to 12.2% YoY in January despite a VAT hike, and key short‑term indicators, including the tenge, domestic PPI, money supply, the state budget balance, and global food prices – are not pointing to increased inflationary pressure. Region‑wide inflation and interest rates have also been trending downward since the start of the year. That said, uncertainty around domestic utility tariffs for 2Q26 and ongoing quasi‑fiscal stimulus amid overheated domestic demand should keep the NBK cautious for now.
February CPI (Mon): This will help confirm whether January’s benign inflation backdrop has persisted. We expect a modest 0.2 percentage point decrease to 12.0% YoY. Additionally, the NBK’s monthly FX market bulletin, due early in the week, should reaffirm the government’s commitment to limiting monthly FX sales to around USD 400mn in 2026, down from an average of USD 700mn in 2025. However, part of this decline may be offset by higher gold‑related FX sales from the NBK.
Key events in developed markets
Source: Refinitiv, ING
Key events in Central and Eastern Europe
Source: Refinitiv, ING
Hurtige nyheder er stadig i beta-fasen, og fejl kan derfor forekomme.
